Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4960b7cfb93cd311931bce236580d78982e88bfe01cb8669cfa4808813282ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $290,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 3c | 30,538$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 1c | 22,603$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 13,066$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.4 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 7c | 6,767$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 2c | 6,389$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…67cdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,085$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…381dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,256$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…502bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,080$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…f486backed Yes | 13c | 4,999$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,795$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.24 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 11c | 4,784$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…88e8backed Yes | 0c | 4,376$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 3,528$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,266$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 14c | 3,126$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.99 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 23c | 2,863$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.31 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 16c | 2,336$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,274$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…0cadbacked Yes | 25c | 1,806$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,551$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2d43backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…1707backed Yes | 8c | 1,487$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Yes | 17c | 1,390$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,219$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…f137backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 75c | 1,186$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.85 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 17c | 1,183$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff11…add9backed Yes | 17c | 1,145$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 20c | 1,070$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…dc89backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…0601backed Yes | 18c | 1,002$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed Yes | 12c | 999.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…e67abacked Yes | 12c | 909.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 7c | 880$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 10c | 850$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d02abacked Yes | 15c | 815.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…0eb3backed Yes | 5c | 790.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…8a29backed Yes | 13c | 781.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d83…7595backed Yes | 15c | 774.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…376fbacked Yes | 16c | 771.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 761.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked Yes | 5c | 737.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 7c | 732.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…a8bdbacked Yes | 7c | 712.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…034cbacked Yes | 14c | 695.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 15c | 680.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 15c | 659.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…eef3backed Yes | 15c | 657.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafe…1d50backed Yes | 16c | 634.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f63…835abacked Yes | 24c | 630.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 80c | 596.84$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…1b87backed Yes | 21c | 591.27$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Yes | 14c | 573.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…f594backed Yes | 18c | 542.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…a4b9backed Yes | 3c | 541.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9f…f8c1backed Yes | 4c | 528.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…ae38backed Yes | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…ef06backed Yes | 3c | 480$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…773dbacked Yes | 11c | 476.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 463.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…0f83backed Yes | 22c | 451.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 12c | 444.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 78c | 423.15$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a22…d466backed Yes | 21c | 407.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 16c | 399.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…0123backed Yes | 25c | 388.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…b2a9backed Yes | 19c | 387.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…6fbabacked Yes | 8c | 380$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…2af6backed Yes | 12c | 336.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…cdfbbacked No | 77c | 322.52$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…0476backed Yes | 20c | 308.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…95d9backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…b803backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…3af7backed Yes | 14c | 299.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked Yes | 14c | 295.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 21c | 285.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…9d31backed Yes | 18c | 283.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…f16abacked Yes | 10c | 277.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…68fbbacked Yes | 20c | 272.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…6d19backed Yes | 23c | 258.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…4e98backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…4dfcbacked Yes | 5c | 249.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…2cecbacked Yes | 27c | 248.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…a5e3backed Yes | 14c | 242.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 14c | 240$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…f2f8backed Yes | 22c | 226.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…1148backed Yes | 23c | 214.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked Yes | 10c | 207$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b3…0c49backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…c4b8backed Yes | 19c | 198.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…fc3cbacked Yes | 12c | 179.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 17c | 172.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.