TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9619…a6c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 62 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+110.3%+$161.56
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.8
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+156.4%+$61
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$40.26
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$122
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+121.6%+$680.48
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+47.7%+$53.57
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+245.8%+$371.66
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.99
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$116.98
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+154.9%+$182.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.4
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+300.9%+$285.84
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$31.49
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$115.25
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+66.7%+$16
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.3
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+32.6%+$51.34
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$188
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+156.4%+$30.5
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+558.5%+$526.14
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick16cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NK Celje vs. FC Drita end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$77.36
Will FC Drita win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$23.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$116.78
Lakers vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+185.7%+$124.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Slovenia vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+91.3%+$10.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$28.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$127.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.