Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaba8587c57fb3d6e667817df768f6f146419a240e7c166dc66f07ddbdf1694fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 12,851$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.73 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 65c | 9,861$6,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,414.21 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 52c | 8,431$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,393.88 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 71c | 8,206$5,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,802.25 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 36c | 5,225$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.61 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 4,844$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 25c | 4,649$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.75 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 4,607$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 34c | 3,666$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.15 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 62c | 3,000$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 30c | 2,895$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.61 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 69c | 2,892$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 39c | 2,830$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.53 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 47c | 2,679$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.98 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…5f93backed No | 7c | 2,623$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 66c | 2,385$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.5 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 47c | 2,267$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.56 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 74c | 2,009$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.46 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.2 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 29c | 1,933$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.64 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 35c | 1,708$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.49 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,557$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.07 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,541$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.03 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,515$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.65 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 27c | 1,514$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.51 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.43 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 53c | 1,500$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,384$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.18 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 1,300$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.5 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 17c | 1,258$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.83 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,140$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6d58backed No | 65c | 1,070$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,061$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.12 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,055$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.06 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 1,040$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.86 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 42c | 1,037$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.44 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 41c | 1,031$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.46 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 940$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 17c | 939.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…ba72backed Yes | 40c | 883.51$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 28c | 854.7$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.74 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 75c | 854.45$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 45c | 832.57$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.96 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 28c | 816.06$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 33c | 800$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 54c | 795.52$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 753.38$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.77 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 16c | 746.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.55 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…e6a6backed No | 10c | 686.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 31c | 679.53$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 40c | 650$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a6…cd8fbacked No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 33c | 624.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.72 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 15c | 620.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.14 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 75c | 615.86$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.64 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed Yes | 27c | 609.28$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 17c | 598.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 22c | 597.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e11…43c2backed No | 16c | 582.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…e39bbacked No | 9c | 562.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed No | 7c | 559.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 76c | 544.08$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.68 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 55c | 518$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 516.08$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…ccbbbacked Yes | 48c | 416$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked Yes | 43c | 404.26$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.15 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 18c | 393.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 387.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.41 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 20c | 350$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…4e3ebacked Yes | 40c | 337.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…9b48backed No | 6c | 331.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 19c | 330.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.43 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 45c | 327.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 64c | 280$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 42c | 273.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…a607backed No | 4c | 268.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 59c | 253.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 80c | 251.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 73c | 234.6$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 78c | 233.19$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 61c | 229.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 23c | 217.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.97 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 68c | 211$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…f52ebacked Yes | 57c | 210.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 48c | 210.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…cf13backed Yes | 25c | 204.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 27c | 202.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 68c | 202$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…c3d0backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 15c | 197.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 66c | 195.85$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 32c | 187.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…4f0bbacked No | 63c | 172.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.