TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88b0…693f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
355
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 98 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$360.46
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$444
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,211
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$960
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$630
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$744
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,353Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+126.6%+$1,713.52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$659.99
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,505Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$2,795
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,025
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.08
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$319.99
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$975
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$885
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$390.52
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+200%+$800
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$579.49
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$1,170
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+110.1%+$1,310
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$325
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$495
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+233.3%+$23.8
Showing 25 of 98 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT8847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 88 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,717Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,716.63
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+166.7%+$1,250
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+92.3%+$384
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+212.5%+$1,020
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$217.7
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85.03
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+150%+$126
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+150%+$63.12
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.99
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+150%+$126
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+150%+$59.99
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,222Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+100.6%+$1,228.4
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+164.9%+$249
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$184.5
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+276.4%+$337.78
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+161.9%+$290.55
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$183.49
U.S. Government funding lapse on October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$37.76
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+196.6%+$168.81
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$572Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$571.57
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Showing 25 of 88 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT6639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$38.6
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$855.43
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.62
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+145.1%+$858.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.5
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+143.9%+$83.16
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.4
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$185.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90.28
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.02
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.83
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$139.5
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$114
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+184%+$63.59
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$490.5
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+194.1%+$138.6
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21.33
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$74
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,162Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,162.1
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$479.37
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$286
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT5633.9%19 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$174
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$195.13
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+167.8%+$2,005
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.98
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$349.71
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$3,221.8
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$46.55
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$2,551.89
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$124
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61.32
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$228.33
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$35.4
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$156.07
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+137.5%+$538.98
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+185.7%+$552.5
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$625Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+77.1%+$482.12
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDAbacked GL-PvdA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+156.4%+$110
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$627
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$184
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.97
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$284.45
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$944Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$944.29
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$252
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$593Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+101.6%+$602.6
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+96.1%+$73.5
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$920Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$919.8
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+173.1%+$104.27
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+185.7%+$39
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$731.8
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+187.2%+$742.89
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$34.8
Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+230.6%+$76
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will Fed end QT before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.6
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+186.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+81.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+214.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+223.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+223.8%+$205.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.