TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No11c11,748$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.649533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked No21c11,144$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes72c9,480$6,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.944057.5%23 W · 17 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No10c8,840$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.4611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No20c8,675$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No22c8,209$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.4810324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No10c7,787$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.857331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked No22c7,614$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.592650%13 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No18c7,532$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3545832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb753…f859backed No28c7,108$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No8c6,579$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.4413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No11c6,089$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.899129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No0c5,555$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No8c5,452$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.524339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No29c5,192$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.251861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No14c4,880$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.788036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes79c4,831$3,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.6817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No18c3,619$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.725135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbd…3d3dbacked No16c3,000$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c2,956$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.231,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No14c2,700$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.8735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes74c2,258$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.33540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No6c2,177$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.281915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed No12c2,158$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa607…2caebacked No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No10c1,613$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.311541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No7c1,592$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.316010%6 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No10c1,502$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2316535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No24c1,452$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.552334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No12c1,350$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.765442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No14c1,117$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No9c1,074$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked No10c1,049$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.55825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…783ebacked No17c1,005$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No14c1,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes77c965.89$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.15955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No6c943.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No12c876.93$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1619436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes79c806.12$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.54195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-93.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No17c750.32$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.565616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2c…5c34backed No27c747.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf985…d7bcbacked Yes74c679$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c660.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f93…e7a5backed No5c627.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No14c587.8$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9210950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x94d6…9ab8backed No8c549.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c534.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e43…18a1backed Yes77c533.61$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.841241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No11c500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534235.7%15 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8e…923fbacked Yes75c475.34$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.57650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed Yes77c442.11$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.798100%8 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No13c412$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.312733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed Yes77c409.2$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.116100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bdb…8e0fbacked Yes74c405.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd02d…17e8backed Yes79c404.9$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.811172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.974839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked No24c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4028…d87abacked Yes76c361.04$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed No4c335.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No25c315.93$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9318033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No4c313.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No4c304.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.886634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a46…5b84backed Yes76c299$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0fa…0a56backed No17c297.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked No8c278.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No9c273.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5637…618fbacked Yes73c261.58$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+69.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.12737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf70f…d753backed Yes69c249.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.05850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+55.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed No12c235$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270d…9feabacked No11c227.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5f…1f07backed Yes73c203.62$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked Yes76c201$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.241330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc8…e126backed Yes75c200.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes74c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.619328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd036…ff2ebacked No5c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-72.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…eeaebacked Yes76c200$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed No25c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.663823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1767…1f60backed No25c188.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.48450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+173.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12f…acdfbacked Yes74c177.59$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.054100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No12c171.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.582740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No23c167.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.28736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes72c158.14$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.646423.4%15 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes74c135.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-80.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…9640backed Yes77c134.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No11c126.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef2…bc22backed Yes73c126.25$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.334100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No9c124.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ddd…722dbacked Yes75c124$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.48100%8 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3cf…4de3backed No27c112.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes40c105.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.128847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x74f8…d13fbacked No26c101.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.911428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.12055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d1…8c91backed No29c99.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-81.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c84.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa403…9cabbacked Yes74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No24c69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.775437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e49…c24cbacked Yes79c66.31$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.