TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x066a…550d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
148
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Commodities, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST4339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$481.2
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.2%+$890.16
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,527Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,527.13
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+35.1%+$519.99
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$331.96
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,505Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,505.29
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$494.3
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,398Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,397.92
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+495.2%+$2,539.76
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.82
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$175.99
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$428.52
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,126Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$554.39
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+300%+$600
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$6,074Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+26%+$1,578.12
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$46.5
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15,689Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,688.63
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,799.99
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,899Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,899.3
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.48
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.6
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+198.9%+$199.64
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$289
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$190
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Mexico before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$16.06
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$754
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.09
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,882Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,881.88
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,399.8
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.8
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,368.5
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,125.5
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,463Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$1,070.07
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+67.9%+$679.6
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+31.6%+$240
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,465Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.6%+$1,035
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$310.41
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$8,627Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.2%+$3,643.37
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$370
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.96
Israel strike on Iran on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$321.5
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$476
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$7,388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,388.25
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,482
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$565Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+254%+$1,435
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,396Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$1,985.05
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$245
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$203.09
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$855Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+28.5%+$243.56
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.49
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,715Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+42.9%+$735
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$24.16
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$462.61
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$450
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+244.8%+$532.98
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$365
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$31.42
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$906Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+25%+$226.45
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST+35.1%+$156
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+51.5%+$306
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+47.1%+$256
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$245.38
Will Jamaal Bowman win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$110.77
Will George Latimer win the NY-16 Democratic House Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$118.71
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2024, EST+238.2%+$154.96
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,881.1
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,768Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,768.16
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$4,088Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,088.15
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$866Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$866
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+424.1%+$9,665.62
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$960
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,511Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+91.8%+$1,386.11
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+193.5%+$708.71
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$300
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$8,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,480.62
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20,720Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+50.1%+$10,380.91
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+78.7%+$1,692.79
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.06
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+47.1%+$242.66
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$206.31
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+38.9%+$280
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT8100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,548Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$1,111.6
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21,770Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$6,941.19
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$797Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$233.2
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$333.19
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$669.59
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$6,822Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$3,226.88
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$857Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+64.1%+$549.06
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,514Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$716.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,400.33
Will Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+38.9%+$124.32
TikTok banned in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+150.3%+$148.09
All 3 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,375
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.