Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9529f59aedc8e7b4ef49439f57788b3c99c0a2e4c44a5e4b97374803b5cbc0e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa64…7643backed Yes | 22c | 78,006$17,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,161.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e9…d1a0backed No | 78c | 78,006$60,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,161.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 72c | 7,184$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 28c | 6,131$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.71 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 26c | 5,614$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.37 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed Yes | 8c | 5,426$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 76c | 5,104$3,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,841$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 76c | 3,228$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.82 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 2,815$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.33 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,461$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 52c | 2,093$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 27c | 1,899$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.08 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 78c | 1,655$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.09 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,604$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,581$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 78c | 1,512$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.23 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 1c | 963.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 23c | 898.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 13c | 850.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 10c | 676.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…6f57backed No | 61c | 609.5$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked No | 68c | 599.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 470.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 12c | 424.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 8c | 363.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed No | 66c | 355.09$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…6499backed Yes | 23c | 325$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 324.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 251.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 221$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 22c | 205$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 20c | 196.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed No | 66c | 164.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…5f71backed Yes | 13c | 139.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 22c | 138.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 14c | 135.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 130.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 53c | 112.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x070e…9dc8backed No | 74c | 112.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 11c | 108.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 101.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…12b5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 29c | 87.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 34c | 84.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 36c | 71.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 67.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…6a5dbacked No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 65c | 61.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf716…82ccbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…281ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…8d19backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…e07bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…78ebbacked No | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 63c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…9bc1backed No | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.