TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c71…14a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
236
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 58 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST7753.2%41 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.23
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$23.49
U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+119%+$47.61
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$18.23
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$12.25
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.1
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$68.11
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+50.6%+$20.25
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.05
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.29
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+49.6%+$19.84
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+57.3%+$17.19
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7448.6%36 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$9.74
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.67
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$22.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+300%+$90
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$188.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$17.97
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.48
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$14.12
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43%+$25.78
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.9%+$12.69
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$8.96
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$13.48
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.5%+$47.7
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$29.19
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$16.88
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$8.46
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$6.27
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$31.22
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$8.96
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+111.2%+$67.53
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump announces cutting all military aid to Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+69.5%+$28.78
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+40.8%+$12.25
All 22 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$22.24
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.48
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$13
Ethereum all time high by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$28.97
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.63
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.33
Ethereum all time high by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.24
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+76.1%+$76.14
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$14.12
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada recession in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+44.9%+$15.46
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+65.4%+$19.62
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+57%+$22.81
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$39.98
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.86
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Trudeau resigns before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+73.4%+$22.02
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+84.3%+$50.56
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$12.86
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.81
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $350b on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$19.94
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$47.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.36
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35%+$20.97
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+37%+$11.1
All 9 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+53.8%+$16.15
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$41.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+110%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.