World Politics · resolved market
Canada recession in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa452156295b8880a0422d1e29bb5c50ad84a9a3488d89a3fa75a6588fb8c03e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae46…79a6backed No | 66c | 1,551$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 1,359$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 56c | 1,241$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,010$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 21c | 862.14$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 799.98$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…d6a5backed Yes | 28c | 600$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 38c | 529.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 59c | 520.39$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 35c | 478.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed Yes | 39c | 471$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9146…335abacked Yes | 29c | 466.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…5a46backed No | 77c | 459.17$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 444.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b8…dda3backed Yes | 13c | 388.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…1f4bbacked Yes | 27c | 374.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 22c | 368.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 51c | 328.62$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 47c | 328.33$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 327.46$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 62c | 314$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 69c | 288.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed No | 52c | 273$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…2d1cbacked Yes | 15c | 268$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 56c | 250.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Yes | 30c | 245.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…d63ebacked Yes | 21c | 229.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…51e4backed Yes | 51c | 195.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856d…3923backed Yes | 9c | 188.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked Yes | 54c | 186.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…b15bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a8…6721backed No | 65c | 154.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 136$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 39c | 133.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…94e0backed No | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…99c0backed Yes | 16c | 129.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 122.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…a35bbacked Yes | 18c | 114.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 107.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…07d1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…482bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7f…1c34backed Yes | 20c | 99.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…395fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed No | 65c | 72.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…5199backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…9dc4backed No | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 59c | 69.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…942bbacked No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…3bedbacked No | 77c | 55.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…1171backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd4…5beabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 69c | 49.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 69c | 40.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…29e3backed Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 56c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked No | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked No | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 49c | 27.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.