TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$222,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fe7…4f20backed No79c8,549$6,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.573923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes11c7,292$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.0837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c4,940$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.8133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No76c4,658$3,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.1516144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed Yes29c4,636$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.811540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9bc…d5f1backed Yes23c3,909$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c3,333$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.75736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes12c2,716$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.2310035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb898…1288backed Yes14c2,564$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes18c2,416$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.95756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes27c2,093$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.7122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c2,058$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.7499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No73c2,000$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.76825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes12c1,960$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.724040%16 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…b24ebacked Yes16c1,868$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd63e…71dfbacked No69c1,702$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No74c1,602$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.051127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes41c1,564$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.343542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes14c1,493$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes18c1,368$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.021428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes15c1,234$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd59b…d1acbacked Yes26c1,222$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes17c1,220$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.43026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked No79c1,181$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes18c1,169$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b0…9d34backed No79c1,148$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes21c1,125$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…8de1backed No79c1,079$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No74c1,050$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.7213046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes21c1,003$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.021216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3c4…2f6cbacked Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b7…165cbacked No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd9c…92b7backed No77c982.33$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed No74c978.92$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.031060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed No76c977.22$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.021136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No71c959.65$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.931650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes25c937.69$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5116725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes22c919.99$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.241526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c908.42$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.781,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43bd…215fbacked Yes15c885$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed No79c861.62$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.812157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked No66c833.77$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes20c824.17$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.685050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3593…6a91backed Yes19c809.05$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes22c743.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.483237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b4…5b08backed Yes5c724.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes21c718.37$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes8c700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5613216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes26c690.82$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.37051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330a…6f8cbacked Yes40c664.85$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…105bbacked No57c660$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6865…5320backed Yes43c660$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No70c655.71$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+135.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked No73c649.93$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.871050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes16c633.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be1…67aebacked Yes32c630$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00b…e3fdbacked No68c630$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes30c619.6$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.25343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes24c608.75$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5121935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked No78c599.99$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes20c599.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No57c595$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes18c563.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.799837.8%37 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044e…32bcbacked No69c561.84$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No69c539.08$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb08a…c850backed Yes16c538.89$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec4e…d9dbbacked No70c537.56$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.661080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c535.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No72c526.72$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.766540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ec…8e4bbacked Yes29c520.83$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes31c516.27$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce32…a145backed Yes10c510$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes40c500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.066728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c495.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes32c471.63$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes19c459.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.33745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No79c456.41$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.911936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed No78c450.48$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c443.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.951343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes8c434.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7813714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes15c433.28$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3411010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No63c430$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.357447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2e…6b43backed Yes17c425.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes21c413$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c406.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes31c402.97$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7d…f545backed Yes6c396$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.721118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No64c393.49$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes13c393.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.131118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+411%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes12c385.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.092425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No63c374.92$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No76c374.82$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.865234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes29c373.3$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes40c372.96$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.473925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No69c355$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.052445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cad…642dbacked Yes28c354.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.