TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,833
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,833 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed No5c10,830$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.6512126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes73c3,509$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.967661.8%47 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No24c2,562$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.57267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No25c2,412$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.6593840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked No48c2,066$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.847044.3%31 W · 39 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c1d…aa8abacked No5c1,541$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No33c1,432$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.795048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No5c1,300$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681631.3%5 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick11cpaid+129.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No15c1,278$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.576937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes63c1,275$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.631070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes75c1,255$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.543046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c1,246$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes79c1,138$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5414849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c1,138$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.3730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed No5c1,120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.781421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdef3…0724backed Yes78c1,031$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.52366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc485…c2a2backed Yes79c1,008$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc123…1370backed No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…7bc3backed Yes69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3102100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1d…a7dabacked No21c939.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No15c844.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.463531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+78.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b22…ab06backed Yes69c730.54$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No12c712.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.463562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes57c696.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.972138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307b…62bebacked No17c621.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes24c600$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4591163.6%7 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick26cpaid+149.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb18b…3d90backed No43c586.81$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.943013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes25c450$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.751080%8 W · 2 L+5.4wins+0.54per pick26cpaid+264.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x497d…944cbacked No12c416.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No18c406.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.037921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf96…9942backed Yes69c401.43$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.741266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No25c400.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.057935.4%28 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb666…0b40backed No15c370$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe437…ed7dbacked No11c350.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.022532%8 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6697…e53cbacked Yes78c342.16$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No9c340.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.861884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed Yes71c337.88$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8e…39b0backed No22c330.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7480%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed No20c320.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9213949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes62c309.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.76240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes26c295.44$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.945747.4%27 W · 30 L+13.8wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+54.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c294.7$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.654617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes65c292$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.215556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No23c285.94$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked No27c263.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No27c236.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.49683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde96…7dfcbacked No20c220.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…96cebacked No14c212.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x083d…7dcfbacked No21c208.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c204.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c3…afd0backed Yes69c198$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d49…1555backed Yes69c197$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No29c188.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.131,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c182.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3521815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No36c177.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6915446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c172.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3935334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No10c171.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14293.4%1 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3c…a4d0backed Yes69c160$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26c1…4c17backed Yes69c156$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No10c155.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e30…d732backed No28c151.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.841040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No24c149$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.174214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bce…db9cbacked Yes69c148$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf8…8dcbbacked No10c147.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7749…904fbacked Yes70c141$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d47…9a45backed No26c136.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes71c135.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.711628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a81…c57fbacked No8c132.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes78c130.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.372871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No42c130.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd966…6469backed No18c126.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c125.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No17c120.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.654330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c117.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes77c114.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.352025%5 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74b7…c770backed No25c113$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No9c111$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1127322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed No24c105.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No13c105.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6834534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed No18c102$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-64.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb5c…e2a0backed No35c101.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No25c100.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.948617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134042.5%17 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4078…a7f7backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2606…aaddbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d48…9e76backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1519419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xce6e…54d3backed No26c92.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.091323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No24c92.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7099…7646backed No22c90.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed No22c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No27c89.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4439034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked No42c88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.961145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…210cbacked Yes58c87.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes64c87.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.68560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes23c86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.