Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x029cd00d5716cd5e5e3f08c92056945ec632c46b4dc58a9eeb2ed57d0d02eb14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 5c | 10,830$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.65 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 73c | 3,509$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.96 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 24c | 2,562$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.57 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 2,412$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.65 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 48c | 2,066$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.84 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked No | 5c | 1,541$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 33c | 1,432$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.79 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 5c | 1,300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 15c | 1,278$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 63c | 1,275$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes | 75c | 1,255$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 1,246$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.61 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,138$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 1,138$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.37 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 5c | 1,120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef3…0724backed Yes | 78c | 1,031$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 79c | 1,008$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…1370backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…7bc3backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked No | 21c | 939.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 15c | 844.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…ab06backed Yes | 69c | 730.54$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 12c | 712.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 57c | 696.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.97 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307b…62bebacked No | 17c | 621.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 24c | 600$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.38per pick | 26cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb18b…3d90backed No | 43c | 586.81$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 25c | 450$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 26cpaid | +264.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 12c | 416.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 406.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 69c | 401.43$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 400.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…0b40backed No | 15c | 370$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked No | 11c | 350.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…e53cbacked Yes | 78c | 342.16$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 9c | 340.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 71c | 337.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed No | 22c | 330.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 20c | 320.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 62c | 309.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 26c | 295.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.94 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 294.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.65 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 65c | 292$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 23c | 285.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 27c | 263.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 27c | 236.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…7dfcbacked No | 20c | 220.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…96cebacked No | 14c | 212.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083d…7dcfbacked No | 21c | 208.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 204.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…afd0backed Yes | 69c | 198$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d49…1555backed Yes | 69c | 197$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 188.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 182.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 36c | 177.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 172.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 10c | 171.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…a4d0backed Yes | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…4c17backed Yes | 69c | 156$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 10c | 155.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed No | 28c | 151.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 24c | 149$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…db9cbacked Yes | 69c | 148$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked No | 10c | 147.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7749…904fbacked Yes | 70c | 141$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…9a45backed No | 26c | 136.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 71c | 135.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 8c | 132.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 78c | 130.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 42c | 130.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…6469backed No | 18c | 126.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 125.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 17c | 120.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 117.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 77c | 114.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…c770backed No | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed No | 24c | 105.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 13c | 105.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…e2a0backed No | 35c | 101.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 100.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…a7f7backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…9e76backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…54d3backed No | 26c | 92.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked No | 24c | 92.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…7646backed No | 22c | 90.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 89.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…210cbacked Yes | 58c | 87.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 64c | 87.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.