Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01fcd4359561aa1d797882fde9569aa75b12defa9570d9f2ea25dfb1a01dae8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,008 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 21c | 6,250$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.29 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes | 79c | 4,930$3,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 11c | 1,617$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.29 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 14c | 1,335$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.28 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed Yes | 60c | 1,298$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 1,062$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked No | 9c | 1,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 16c | 908.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…54d3backed No | 21c | 747.78$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 6c | 722.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 7c | 570.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 524.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 5c | 431.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 295.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 271.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 10c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 8c | 246.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…e9adbacked No | 7c | 228.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 76c | 226$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 5c | 218.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…e2a0backed No | 32c | 216.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 16c | 181.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 164.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 22c | 142.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 22c | 141.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 138.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 18c | 132.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6bb1backed No | 44c | 129.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 126.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed No | 18c | 101.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 56c | 85.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 84.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…f850backed Yes | 77c | 82.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 23c | 62.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed No | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 64c | 46.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 56c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…90d3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 65c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.