Commodities · resolved market
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeaecf9904d03a6fe48ab52ad4caed979a658fb5d7d89d608b087a0cd065d937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x893b…a860backed Yes | 19c | 3,324$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 67c | 2,224$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.81 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…7869backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c02…e572backed Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…6f10backed Yes | 1c | 1,696$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…23dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,642$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 16c | 1,602$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.51 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,033$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…1370backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…7bc3backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…b95abacked No | 78c | 996.87$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 54c | 865.65$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 70c | 802.19$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 13c | 756.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 32c | 741.86$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 735.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…7cc4backed No | 38c | 642.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe421…bf1ebacked No | 41c | 612.03$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 27c | 510$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Yes | 32c | 494.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 43c | 460.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Yes | 16c | 436.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd350…8ae8backed Yes | 48c | 417.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 44c | 399.86$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.86 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 368.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…4b08backed No | 58c | 363$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…e4ebbacked No | 58c | 359$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f09…be24backed No | 58c | 351$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 345.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…f43abacked No | 58c | 343$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 46c | 329.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…6ad0backed No | 58c | 328$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 318.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 310.39$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 34c | 297$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 293.16$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…2eb0backed Yes | 17c | 292.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 290.04$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 18c | 279$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 275.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 38c | 262.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…21c7backed Yes | 20c | 245.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…b20abacked Yes | 21c | 238.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342b…d208backed Yes | 29c | 219.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 6c | 204.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 23c | 200.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…2584backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…22a8backed Yes | 62c | 195$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…afd0backed No | 68c | 195$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…ea13backed No | 58c | 195$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…faa0backed Yes | 32c | 194.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…4f9fbacked No | 35c | 189.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bce…db9cbacked No | 68c | 178$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d49…1555backed No | 68c | 178$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…4eb8backed Yes | 21c | 176.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…2293backed Yes | 29c | 174.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 11c | 173.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 68c | 169.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 30c | 168.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…4c17backed No | 68c | 168$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7749…904fbacked No | 70c | 161$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 43c | 159.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…22fdbacked No | 62c | 159.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 55c | 155.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 148.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 23c | 144.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 15c | 141$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 58c | 134.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 77c | 132.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 66c | 132$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…9a1abacked No | 72c | 130$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 68c | 126.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 125.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 40c | 125.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…9a97backed No | 62c | 120.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 78c | 117.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 114.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 27c | 106.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 33c | 106.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 106.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 37c | 105.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…374ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e38cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 61c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes | 62c | 97.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?this page
- Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Yes won
- Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.05 by March 31?No won
- Will gas hit (Low) $3.10 by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.