TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd350…8ae8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4734%16 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$578.22
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.43
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.78
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,132.3
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$998.8
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.07
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$351.66
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$788.48
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,852Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$654.27
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
Raptors vs. Clippersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$358
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,038
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$890Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$890
Raptors vs. Sunsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.7
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Clippers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Heat vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$425
Raptors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$992Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$795.54
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$167.39
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+125%+$249.95
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+323.3%+$646.56
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$959Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$959
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.91
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.62
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$595.13
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.59
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.72
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.36
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteersbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.51
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5)backed Tennessee State Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.26
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.48
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougarsbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.07
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$141.35
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhornsbacked Texas Longhorns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,845Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+88.5%+$1,632.45
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked Howard Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+103.3%+$153.52
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 170.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+80.9%+$16.03
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 143.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.99
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$175.81
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Flamesbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$582.83
Panthers vs. Flamesbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$481
Stars vs. Avalanchebacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$130.94
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Blue Jackets vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$520
All 5 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$196.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+70%+$175.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.