TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,182,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,182,837 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,051 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedd6…c6babacked No0c410,130$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3fb…0eacbacked No0c245,299$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacb…45d7backed No0c219,098$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…7801backed No0c218,938$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…4056backed No0c209,250$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee64…00abbacked No0c199,800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c167,288$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.295149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9963…0cfdbacked No0c132,998$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73e…d6bfbacked No0c82,600$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad8…6be0backed No1c51,100$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x152d…c689backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No0c43,770$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.541723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0e…c0bfbacked No0c39,995$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No0c38,968$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.715525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb72…1be8backed No0c33,558$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea9…94c0backed No0c33,486$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fc…1efebacked No61c32,786$19,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8485…9634backed No0c32,414$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6988…d29dbacked No0c31,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No55c25,182$13,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,904.613070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd536…6659backed No0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9016…7d9dbacked No3c21,850$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f6…1da8backed No1c21,111$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7881…f022backed Yes45c20,858$9,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,492.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378b…4c2cbacked No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7011…c6dabacked No1c19,436$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.231050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec6…0cfebacked No1c15,668$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e4a…680fbacked No0c14,417$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No4c13,867$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.2515020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93dd…d543backed No0c13,191$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed No0c12,150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7065…9feabacked No0c12,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No62c11,831$7,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,384.921323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes39c11,717$4,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,089.442250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No21c11,695$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.6630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…0fd8backed No0c11,376$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…d55bbacked Yes65c10,697$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,796.92475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No31c10,692$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.5893840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c10,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes41c9,556$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,626.643122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes53c9,328$4,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c9,261$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5469…34edbacked No0c9,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed No4c8,896$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.283417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2993…a2f8backed No20c8,670$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No62c7,736$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.842025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No55c7,600$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.931681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed Yes42c7,476$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,329.55837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8f3…1d61backed Yes39c7,400$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes80c7,090$5,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.331711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f2…ac3cbacked No0c6,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes44c6,852$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.33135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked No45c6,789$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No4c6,538$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f5…16e6backed Yes47c6,386$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.56911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-76.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes45c6,280$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3801…cbe8backed Yes49c6,124$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,098.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes38c6,053$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,755.612330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c5,944$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.161,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed No2c5,796$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No29c5,768$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.181770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked No63c5,477$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,477.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No14c5,298$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.059745.4%44 W · 53 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Yes56c5,216$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.04875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No54c5,171$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,792.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes79c5,143$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0861421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No34c5,103$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.33737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cda…fe85backed No0c5,003$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e77…e633backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd4…a9b9backed No56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c4,750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No3c4,730$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.541884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes45c4,694$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.71233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…58c7backed No61c4,600$2,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes58c4,591$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.412365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked Yes56c4,377$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.053036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb448…da3ebacked No0c4,192$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No65c4,120$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes78c3,948$3,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.492454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d32…b150backed No0c3,842$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014a…eaa7backed Yes42c3,825$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.79742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c3,632$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5511615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No41c3,617$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.641723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25e…86ffbacked No0c3,550$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1120…47bfbacked No51c3,531$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.682653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7159…c63ebacked No1c3,516$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed No52c3,463$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.391866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No56c3,400$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.813268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes52c3,390$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.361643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c3,210$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.530839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes75c3,173$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.053030%9 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x705a…1678backed No17c3,119$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+115%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed No1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3380%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No29c2,885$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.991346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.