TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,322,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,133,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,322,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 607 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25db…28debacked Yes10c81,749$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.379317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes16c62,831$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes2c49,572$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.267727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ba…413fbacked Yes0c49,523$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes26c49,395$12,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,718.5810930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c39,662$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.661315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes33c38,000$12,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,547.035151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes11c26,232$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.15397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked Yes9c26,074$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440.131414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c25,537$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.762330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x337b…9439backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c41…d286backed Yes1c18,246$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes30c16,997$5,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,061.42170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No63c15,235$9,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,621.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes13c13,443$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.094610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes38c13,210$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes37c11,110$4,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,120.493666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf215…f719backed Yes1c10,876$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.042025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes35c10,342$3,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,641.2711921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c10,121$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.74812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e1…6a12backed Yes27c10,088$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No75c9,737$7,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.75875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes2c9,057$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-61.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cca…50e9backed Yes18c8,874$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked Yes47c8,753$4,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,118.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes26c7,682$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes37c7,653$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.1330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf58…cdcbbacked No65c7,629$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.161471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Yes24c7,500$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x053e…1e27backed Yes40c7,435$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No46c6,456$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.2315020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes21c6,002$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.653417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d37…94c8backed Yes25c6,000$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.9750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No65c6,000$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.981618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked Yes4c5,444$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.411030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes22c5,132$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.595844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked No43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8501546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3503562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae2…426fbacked Yes0c4,687$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c4,593$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.4415446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes16c4,582$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.572231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No61c4,045$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.731546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad9…b9f7backed Yes20c4,032$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes43c3,959$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.5829264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c3,882$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.31884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes14c3,803$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.057011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Yes41c3,631$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.161573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes6c3,593$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3213949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c3,569$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.2130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes20c3,497$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6954930.6%15 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b57…20b1backed No80c3,433$2,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.471747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed No50c3,262$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.742176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+81.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x258a…3cf4backed Yes3c3,235$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb416…c7a1backed No53c2,905$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.611338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes32c2,829$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.651442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No60c2,827$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked Yes5c2,817$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c62…cd27backed Yes4c2,782$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6d…f901backed Yes2c2,753$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes26c2,744$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed No56c2,676$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.5730443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,619$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.261306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…e13cbacked No68c2,568$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.622060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…097dbacked No67c2,513$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes19c2,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4654027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No74c2,491$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.673036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No78c2,399$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.111838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes17c2,375$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004257.1%24 W · 18 L+7.7wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+37.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c2,324$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.99912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes35c2,201$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.252218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d42…aeaabacked Yes21c2,143$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf13a…a600backed Yes47c2,123$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No74c2,099$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.787335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes0c2,090$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes15c2,029$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.421127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes21c2,000$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.82920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9603534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c9e…352abacked No72c1,841$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.731833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10f4…7145backed Yes3c1,803$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes28c1,800$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5093056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc977…74dcbacked Yes22c1,795$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes50c1,750$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.394914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x605e…de5cbacked Yes12c1,710$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3582…8fc6backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,663$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.852324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed No54c1,626$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed No56c1,606$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.391540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c1,600$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.91212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed No52c1,600$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7681323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked No78c1,600$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x142d…5c3dbacked Yes28c1,588$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No80c1,556$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.712343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…5fb0backed No48c1,547$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.431957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,510$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.82812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c6…6daabacked Yes32c1,493$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.26128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-77.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes19c1,435$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.557334.2%25 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…bf17backed Yes20c1,400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.