Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcddf7f29cf7b44269f4dac8434fc21b3a1aa26e7721e3231eb5bc0f7af4208e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $348,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x221a…5ff0backed Yes | 1c | 10,210$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…415fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d07…06f2backed Yes | 0c | 10,130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…3041backed Yes | 0c | 10,081$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,666$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +373.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…be34backed Yes | 0c | 5,069$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,060$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,979$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,908$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,828$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 3,523$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 1c | 3,415$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 3,359$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…5271backed Yes | 1c | 3,250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…cbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,644$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…e4d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 2,161$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,049$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,002$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…2ceebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 2c | 1,794$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 1,766$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,724$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed Yes | 1c | 1,644$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…de3dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…08c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,417$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,338$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,311$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 2c | 1,241$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 974.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…19c0backed Yes | 2c | 964.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e30…7bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 892.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 779.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388c…bcfdbacked Yes | 5c | 759.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes | 4c | 700.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Yes | 6c | 698.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…515cbacked Yes | 6c | 681.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 650.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 487.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…312fbacked Yes | 10c | 479.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…60c4backed Yes | 2c | 455.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0144…df6ebacked Yes | 3c | 406.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 334.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 4c | 247.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 6c | 203.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.