Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f84c8863d9e798a3f4b8de3c7110c29e82eafc5da7a7e53630c9a48cb342aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30dd…cbfdbacked No | 0c | 43,902$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 3c | 14,844$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.98 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 0c | 12,881$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…37fabacked No | 0c | 12,511$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed No | 0c | 11,188$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 3c | 10,482$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…44b2backed No | 0c | 10,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 1c | 9,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759f…4c5abacked No | 1c | 8,841$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed No | 2c | 7,383$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 6,595$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…7335backed No | 3c | 6,192$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…510bbacked No | 2c | 5,656$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…ff78backed No | 0c | 4,853$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 0c | 4,644$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…515cbacked No | 1c | 4,441$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…f0ebbacked No | 1c | 4,239$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 4,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…490bbacked No | 0c | 3,938$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…c059backed No | 3c | 3,389$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 2c | 2,764$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 3c | 2,552$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8a…af1abacked No | 1c | 2,524$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 2c | 2,492$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,488$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,442$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed No | 1c | 2,385$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 2,242$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…fe92backed No | 2c | 1,591$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…f7c5backed No | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…a85abacked No | 2c | 1,316$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…e009backed No | 2c | 1,294$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked No | 2c | 1,222$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5712…743bbacked No | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…ca8dbacked No | 3c | 1,158$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 3c | 1,120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed No | 2c | 1,077$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed No | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 956.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd6…2531backed No | 2c | 936.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 2c | 897.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 2c | 850$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 2c | 811.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe7eb…1d1fbacked No | 3c | 758.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…ed88backed No | 3c | 673.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 2c | 647.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…36a9backed No | 6c | 640.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 4c | 576.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed No | 2c | 494.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…b01ebacked No | 3c | 466.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb873…3b11backed No | 4c | 383.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed No | 5c | 265.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked No | 6c | 163.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 134.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 63c | 95.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.