TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,711,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,821,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,711,632 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,405 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes66c237,147$157,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157,095.56233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No38c121,814$46,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,810.146651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes22c111,987$25,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,015.5910930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No13c111,204$14,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,792.321050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a29…9b2ebacked No57c99,399$56,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,728.482161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…e215backed Yes60c86,900$52,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,154.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed No15c68,802$10,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,142.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+115.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6371…46c8backed No26c68,100$17,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,666.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+290.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked No74c62,016$45,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,154.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfe…7c31backed Yes17c55,638$9,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,577.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…ff10backed Yes9c55,340$4,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes24c50,855$12,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,355.7170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa80e…b94bbacked No20c50,677$10,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,404.012653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed No65c48,970$31,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,259.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes40c47,101$18,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,708.92832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes38c46,623$17,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,703.7111921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5007…eddabacked Yes35c43,161$15,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,272.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed No40c38,619$15,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,296.512524%6 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No72c38,353$27,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,662.913562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed No9c37,400$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,049.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+458%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes20c36,273$7,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,342.673534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed No4c33,572$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,364.3613949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2974…9c23backed No75c33,256$24,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,410.181844.4%8 W · 10 L-4.9wins-0.27per pick72cpaid-40.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No76c30,548$23,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,344.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes20c28,951$5,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,673.142910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No51c27,942$14,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,726.8511838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No25c26,624$6,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,072.255143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2c…c803backed No50c26,365$13,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,089.181758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes54c25,299$13,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,723.85205%1 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-87.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked No73c24,773$17,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,775.443056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ee…8eeabacked Yes74c23,950$17,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,818.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No62c23,662$14,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,101.6129264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd753…3783backed Yes74c23,200$17,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,260.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9297…7fe9backed Yes13c22,892$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.25825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No76c21,972$16,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,307.284542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No50c21,194$10,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.563070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3892…c815backed Yes74c20,950$15,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,586.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No68c20,350$13,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,585.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No36c20,000$7,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,801.015527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca72…30cdbacked Yes49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.9950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes37c19,381$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,099.992119%4 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c19,378$4,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,420.5530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11e5…ee4dbacked No32c19,289$6,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,116.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c19,050$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.35911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes48c18,911$9,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,065.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No54c17,452$9,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,098.925149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed No24c16,904$4,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,789.66650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3b…1f54backed No44c16,660$7,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,369.71580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+98.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80fe…b25bbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes73c15,000$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,9005115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes52c15,000$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,849.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Yes57c14,765$8,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,465.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked No79c14,658$11,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,147.88875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed No67c13,824$9,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,578.941553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No12c13,809$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,159.383740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+272.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No4c13,720$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,137.371361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+192%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6868…a90abacked No63c13,674$8,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-21.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3335…309ebacked No53c13,513$7,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,404.331241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf396…ed0dbacked No42c13,273$5,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,747.69825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes32c13,252$4,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,257.67847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No48c12,730$6,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.621637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5815…4d68backed Yes38c12,533$4,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,819.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No30c12,161$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,548.9230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No68c12,044$8,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.183135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes80c11,942$9,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,525.4214849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No32c11,884$3,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,068.771306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No33c11,765$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,879.816267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed No26c11,764$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,733.41988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.54per pick35cpaid+218.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfe2d…0e62backed No63c11,721$7,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed No54c11,690$6,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes49c11,667$5,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,766.391346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes20c11,602$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.543528.6%10 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No30c11,493$3,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,046.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes67c11,460$7,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,645.322748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No15c11,192$1,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,564.9715020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No35c11,141$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,197.32948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f1…83dcbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fa…5580backed No53c10,600$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,958.091040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c6…d823backed No71c10,500$7,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes1c10,311$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes52c10,227$5,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,323.66911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes14c10,010$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.889317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2cd…c187backed No49c10,000$4,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,087.872373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa61f…f529backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b23…533abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No43c9,680$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,505.6621228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes80c9,592$7,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,625.511546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No13c9,529$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,272.7413538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fc…333fbacked Yes56c9,247$5,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,191.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…6f18backed Yes23c9,202$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.141711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No32c9,141$2,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,199.59397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes46c8,936$4,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,112.962250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No44c8,868$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,960.144831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No38c8,459$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,234.392965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67ea…ae12backed Yes74c8,411$6,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,230.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick61cpaid-58.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes46c8,364$3,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.515354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No52c8,355$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,968.833050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed No22c8,273$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,426.381926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.