Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ec4a81f9757aa552bc9b386aa215d2cc38bb33855c7f7a3a92ab6dac1a8452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $416,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $417,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 14,331$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…8aa6backed Yes | 0c | 10,220$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…66a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…c248backed Yes | 0c | 10,150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…6d8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…2cd7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…7315backed Yes | 1c | 9,993$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…4324backed Yes | 0c | 8,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 7,784$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes | 2c | 5,781$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…515cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,700$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,793$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +373.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 2c | 3,757$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,722$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0144…df6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,411$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,291$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,281$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 2,164$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…5271backed Yes | 2c | 2,141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,726$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 1,565$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…c181backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…a0e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 1,273$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,124$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 762.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 4c | 679.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes | 3c | 570.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 8c | 376.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 3c | 344$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.