TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,487,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,897,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,487,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,028 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes2c480,535$8,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,092.6210930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes3c162,460$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.511315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c161,529$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09aa…0879backed Yes7c155,872$10,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,741.26520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes3c154,498$5,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,364.2732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes3c107,535$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.63130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe71d…7359backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes1c94,917$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61f…a873backed Yes8c90,857$6,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,94540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c90,465$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,107.81306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes2c86,154$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.983619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes0c82,836$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.515020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f03…7d75backed Yes4c81,459$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2002222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes2c80,898$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.761540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…b75bbacked Yes8c77,185$5,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,987.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes1c76,707$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac6b…9cd2backed Yes7c68,774$5,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c66,275$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.53948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes4c62,328$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.37170%0 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec12…04d8backed Yes5c59,784$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c49…11dbbacked Yes7c56,051$4,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,143.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe946…4cc4backed Yes7c53,858$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,843.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307e…a953backed Yes0c51,901$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b24…8f78backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef5…fb98backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ba…96abbacked Yes3c46,929$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.931816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes5c46,761$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.242832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6c…64b4backed Yes4c45,153$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.022416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes3c44,625$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.43170%0 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes5c44,351$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x553e…77d8backed Yes3c43,500$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Yes4c43,119$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.5370%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes6c43,000$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c41,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.591884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845c…0407backed Yes1c40,682$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.984721.3%10 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes5c40,586$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.644610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes0c40,430$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes6c40,341$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes7c40,000$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked Yes2c36,689$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.795234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c36,240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.93230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes1c35,891$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes1c34,842$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes5c34,694$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.315915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8e…9293backed Yes3c34,341$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes4c33,231$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.391520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef0…156fbacked Yes4c32,965$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.71825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc31…7e2bbacked Yes3c32,476$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.53345.9%2 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd16…649cbacked Yes3c31,321$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.66110%0 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked Yes1c29,962$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-80.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53f0…3363backed Yes1c29,892$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95cf…5e88backed Yes0c27,775$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed63…75acbacked Yes1c27,312$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x278a…d194backed Yes3c27,117$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd157…0b20backed Yes8c27,097$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes2c27,037$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.189317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes0c26,000$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1273315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…9b5cbacked Yes1c25,933$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bdf…b24bbacked Yes6c25,006$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Yes2c24,684$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d7…008dbacked Yes3c23,388$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.951612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes5c21,835$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.18180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…f4eebacked Yes0c21,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa139…6f00backed Yes5c21,420$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes1c21,378$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.47214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf824…05a6backed Yes0c21,293$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c20,978$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.131212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda1…2006backed Yes3c20,651$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes5c20,384$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.451520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c20,208$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.662324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc8…5a06backed Yes5c20,040$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.12520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fb…d6d8backed Yes1c20,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes8c20,000$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-81.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes0c19,505$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3054…69c5backed Yes4c19,135$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c19,091$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.4630718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfc6…f17abacked Yes7c18,856$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c95…d680backed Yes3c18,773$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.561421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1bf6…04ebbacked Yes0c18,452$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11cb…7225backed Yes1c17,200$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3762…b66dbacked Yes4c16,721$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.7270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…2f5fbacked Yes3c16,644$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f1d…cd48backed Yes6c16,307$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d1…1b4cbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5234…5f70backed Yes1c15,376$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes7c15,207$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce84…86f0backed Yes3c15,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes4c14,645$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.321011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes4c14,550$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.721811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd33…cbbbbacked Yes2c14,407$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c14,247$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.23912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x089a…6ce6backed Yes3c13,789$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.85922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes3c13,771$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.24313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecd4…cf86backed Yes1c13,734$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97c…ceefbacked Yes1c13,278$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95d0…bdf2backed Yes1c13,200$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e2…dc7dbacked Yes7c13,048$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4122…9251backed Yes4c12,677$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c12,600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes3c12,565$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.