TailMyPicks
Market

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,744,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,744,784 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 509 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaed1…84e5backed No0c961,243$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaace…24c9backed No1c461,092$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e0…6c4dbacked No0c342,255$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No0c200,000$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0d…99aabacked No0c70,333$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c46,330$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.96932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…98e2backed No1c39,089$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No0c36,272$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.645525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked No0c35,617$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.162433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c35,483$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.485149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked No26c28,608$7,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,562.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…1ea4backed No10c22,248$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0190…3e18backed No0c17,923$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No24c17,388$4,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,192.951323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No16c13,901$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.3215020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No17c13,629$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.673122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fff…740fbacked No0c13,015$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97db…fc83backed No1c10,973$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.992025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd069…d068backed No0c9,167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c8,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No29c8,119$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.992133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097a…7041backed No29c7,763$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c7,750$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No17c7,747$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.814610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes78c7,705$6,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.95115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No18c7,380$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.781770.6%12 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick27cpaid+155.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x26b9…5626backed Yes79c7,000$5,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes65c6,816$4,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.477723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes78c6,749$5,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.853070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f0…1326backed No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3c…0035backed No21c6,077$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes75c5,700$4,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.671315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked No29c5,449$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.91100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c5,344$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes77c5,215$4,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.214050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed No0c5,074$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.462931%9 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bf…48c5backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa241…45f7backed Yes74c4,732$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.293135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3801…cbe8backed Yes72c4,328$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No19c4,300$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.951723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes65c4,281$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.952330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc457…1f30backed No3c4,231$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Yes75c4,027$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.891723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No0c3,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No3c2,876$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.011884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No28c2,743$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c43…2914backed Yes72c2,422$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…d55bbacked Yes71c2,395$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.16475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c2,393$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.4924126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed No3c2,300$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No2c2,276$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4132023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No6c2,256$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.961050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes65c2,222$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.912250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes68c2,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.11338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2120…2647backed Yes74c1,996$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9d…1a13backed Yes67c1,992$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+105.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d7…f795backed Yes78c1,934$1,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c0…8ffdbacked No17c1,931$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked No25c1,916$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.982015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes71c1,750$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No25c1,698$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.038617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6c…741fbacked No24c1,630$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e5f…6f36backed Yes76c1,601$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes72c1,538$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.842748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c1,518$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.522324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c6…df7dbacked No11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1272…f85dbacked No11c1,418$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d2…4db7backed No30c1,400$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes68c1,363$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.182227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed No16c1,361$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.643417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes74c1,353$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.152075%15 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6c56…48b6backed No3c1,340$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No39c1,306$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.424856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4738…7d2ebacked Yes71c1,303$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes77c1,273$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.283619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c1,256$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9216516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,227$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.731,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x844d…2affbacked No17c1,206$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No29c1,178$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.093013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c54…5840backed No34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc09…9b9abacked No4c1,170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.93270%0 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1120…47bfbacked No23c1,168$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.672653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes78c1,162$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.937525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Yes75c1,156$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c1,149$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed No17c1,116$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed Yes79c1,106$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No2c1,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No31c1,069$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.293737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffeb…53a7backed No19c1,068$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x467d…6737backed No34c1,022$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No3c1,010$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4461…71afbacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad1b…8b52backed Yes66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d8d…37fabacked No20c993.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22dc…a7e8backed No26c975$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54a9…d60cbacked Yes79c930.71$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb366…122fbacked Yes79c915.12$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+76.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked No6c911.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.223630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.