TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,390,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,390,443 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27ce…69b1backed No0c324,307$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No0c181,139$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.145149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb29…c331backed No0c122,920$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa00…06d9backed No0c99,790$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9319…9195backed No0c95,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742a…6e69backed No0c78,577$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828c…370abacked No0c70,070$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd0…7576backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No0c46,844$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.917727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203a…3bf9backed No0c31,280$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee3…a899backed No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…e739backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b7…0c0cbacked No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ac…9bcabacked No0c14,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e6…cc5abacked No0c14,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed No2c11,021$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.831241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87a…6dadbacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b4…fb07backed No0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…38cdbacked No0c10,009$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf95b…14ecbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19bb…a23dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d47…0ed2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f9…e61dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…cd8dbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…ac9abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes79c9,962$7,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.762832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes73c9,146$6,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.326233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b6d…a288backed No0c7,575$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked No22c7,268$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.4910930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e60…c07bbacked No0c7,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941b…d96abacked No0c6,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41d…4589backed No0c6,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2907…b582backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd136…719dbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc4d…aed9backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f3…63c7backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bab…a871backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3217…7d6abacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a8…21f0backed No24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No18c3,918$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed No28c3,608$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked No0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3b…3fddbacked No19c2,800$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed No16c2,464$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.962218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No19c2,451$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.954610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe368…097dbacked No25c2,433$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No2c2,310$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58011921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed No17c1,930$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.932965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9466…a745backed No18c1,843$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.731546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked No30c1,697$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5051118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe21…65e5backed Yes72c1,667$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.861850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a24…dd4ebacked No28c1,527$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No28c1,491$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.116651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes72c1,488$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7142…1ed8backed No21c1,464$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes70c1,379$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.0521228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked No11c1,304$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.347538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf402…ce7abacked No25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c1,140$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.616516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed No1c1,110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d7…e13cbacked Yes72c1,102$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.532060%12 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eec…3218backed No18c1,060$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c1,044$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabc5…6133backed No26c999.94$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No29c944.82$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2746033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No28c939.6$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8150%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No5c900$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.41884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No16c877.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8112829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb358…eb11backed No14c773.08$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.76358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No33c652.94$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.295151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes68c600$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1943644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a6…765ebacked No30c588.03$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No18c565.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes78c562.04$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.054645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No15c546.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.939038.9%35 W · 55 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed No25c503.93$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No8c447.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.883339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked No28c444.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.45397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes78c408.53$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.387744.2%34 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x281f…2a35backed No21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0512…d737backed No29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…1e28backed No20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9d…8961backed No23c374.51$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…81ebbacked No27c362.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0004…80c7backed Yes74c347.51$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…7d9ebacked No24c343.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd45…e994backed No31c322.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed No28c287.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.171216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac3e…8150backed No11c260.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.624447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07e…9851backed No29c226.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked No24c217.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b91…c408backed No12c211.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…2cdabacked Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.541926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.