TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,301,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,332,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,301,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes6c60,119$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,490.2990%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes2c58,282$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.71825%2 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+373.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes9c44,942$4,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,091.72130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes12c27,800$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.0430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes8c27,540$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.252231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes3c22,503$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.042910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes9c20,570$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.61040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes4c20,296$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.7610930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes6c16,845$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.641315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes14c16,448$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.321631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af4…a9b1backed Yes6c16,256$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes2c16,110$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.595151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c15,943$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.43948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes6c15,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8702626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e66…4d03backed Yes4c12,607$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes18c12,199$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244100%0 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d80…7375backed Yes1c10,100$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c10,013$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.521306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe838…92fbbacked Yes6c10,000$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c9,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes6c8,696$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8190%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes11c8,626$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.933417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fda…6c62backed Yes4c7,833$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.222218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes7c7,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c7,083$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.542324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c6,748$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.371884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes12c6,363$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.71728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+122.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6417…f8fabacked Yes1c6,209$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes6c6,000$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c5,100$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca1…1f63backed Yes1c5,060$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c5,001$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.01912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc40…3904backed Yes1c4,801$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes19c4,791$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.324610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c4,774$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.871212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cfe…30b6backed No71c4,671$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3707…5bc0backed Yes8c4,608$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f3…fb64backed Yes2c4,329$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes0c4,145$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.217930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c3…064bbacked Yes6c3,709$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,580$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.042221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…31d6backed Yes7c3,580$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes9c3,534$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.191315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes8c3,476$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.082133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No77c3,359$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.24930.6%15 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,165$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.851,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d9…60f1backed No77c3,023$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x253a…c604backed Yes19c2,977$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed Yes6c2,951$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8890%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes7c2,875$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.511546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…64eebacked Yes28c2,857$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed No79c2,804$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.919855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes8c2,754$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23013538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c2,691$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.9330718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes5c2,500$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed1…84e5backed Yes11c2,470$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.71258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes5c2,450$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.35175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-91.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbe…d728backed Yes11c2,352$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4f…e845backed Yes8c2,266$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes16c2,261$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0490%0 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4786…0d69backed Yes6c2,167$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ecb…ae02backed Yes9c2,082$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,996$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.45932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2162…f0b1backed No75c1,918$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6483…3f18backed Yes8c1,876$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.861338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes5c1,832$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c1,772$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.01908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c1,762$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…4048backed Yes5c1,699$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b53…3598backed Yes9c1,671$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6280%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,562$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes10c1,537$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf392…a25cbacked Yes18c1,535$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+85.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x187e…3acfbacked Yes4c1,467$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No78c1,463$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.783036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.0wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes7c1,459$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.425623.2%13 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes8c1,458$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56c…735abacked Yes3c1,416$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d64…7371backed Yes8c1,338$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes12c1,317$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.52839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c1,297$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.23664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes27c1,288$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.835115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes17c1,251$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.045121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa657…00bfbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes2c1,237$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+107.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5712…743bbacked No78c1,200$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,192$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes2c1,169$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes2c1,148$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.471127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7bb…ef9bbacked Yes7c1,119$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5f…e5ccbacked Yes4c1,113$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…476abacked Yes16c1,110$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.74714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-78.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f0c…20bfbacked No73c1,109$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.331040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x915e…2a71backed Yes8c1,084$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.071136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f0…8dfdbacked Yes3c1,049$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa724…83c8backed Yes5c1,047$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac92…3ff2backed Yes9c1,022$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf083…22b0backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.