Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d8be7926a1a23fafa01e8e0e558d2add531e8fbf6efc4b7187f98de0944fd1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,301,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,332,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,301,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa1a…bf63backed Yes | 6c | 60,119$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,490.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 2c | 58,282$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +373.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed Yes | 9c | 44,942$4,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.72 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 12c | 27,800$3,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,293.04 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 8c | 27,540$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 3c | 22,503$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.04 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 9c | 20,570$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,788.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 4c | 20,296$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.76 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 6c | 16,845$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 14c | 16,448$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…a9b1backed Yes | 6c | 16,256$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Yes | 2c | 16,110$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.59 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 15,943$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.43 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…4d03backed Yes | 4c | 12,607$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes | 18c | 12,199$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…7375backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 10,013$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.52 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,696$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 11c | 8,626$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.93 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 4c | 7,833$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.22 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,083$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 6,748$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.37 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 12c | 6,363$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…f8fabacked Yes | 1c | 6,209$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 5,100$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…1f63backed Yes | 1c | 5,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,001$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…3904backed Yes | 1c | 4,801$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 4,791$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.32 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 4,774$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.87 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…30b6backed No | 71c | 4,671$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3707…5bc0backed Yes | 8c | 4,608$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…fb64backed Yes | 2c | 4,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 0c | 4,145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c3…064bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,709$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,580$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…31d6backed Yes | 7c | 3,580$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 9c | 3,534$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 8c | 3,476$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 77c | 3,359$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.2 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…60f1backed No | 77c | 3,023$2,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253a…c604backed Yes | 19c | 2,977$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 6c | 2,951$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes | 7c | 2,875$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…64eebacked Yes | 28c | 2,857$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 79c | 2,804$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.9 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 8c | 2,754$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 2,691$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.93 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…84e5backed Yes | 11c | 2,470$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,450$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbe…d728backed Yes | 11c | 2,352$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…e845backed Yes | 8c | 2,266$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes | 16c | 2,261$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…0d69backed Yes | 6c | 2,167$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…ae02backed Yes | 9c | 2,082$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,996$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…f0b1backed No | 75c | 1,918$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 8c | 1,876$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 1,832$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,772$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,762$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 5c | 1,699$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…3598backed Yes | 9c | 1,671$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,562$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 10c | 1,537$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…a25cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,535$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…3acfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,467$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 78c | 1,463$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.78 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,459$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 8c | 1,458$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56c…735abacked Yes | 3c | 1,416$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…7371backed Yes | 8c | 1,338$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 12c | 1,317$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 27c | 1,288$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.83 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,251$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34bf…26e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5712…743bbacked No | 78c | 1,200$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,192$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,169$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bb…ef9bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,119$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…e5ccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,113$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…476abacked Yes | 16c | 1,110$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…20bfbacked No | 73c | 1,109$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x915e…2a71backed Yes | 8c | 1,084$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…8dfdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,049$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…83c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,047$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…3ff2backed Yes | 9c | 1,022$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…22b0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.