TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$683,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$656,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c35,721$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.727727.3%21 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes7c33,929$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.6410930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes4c27,988$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.1611734.2%40 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c15,187$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.41948.5%8 W · 86 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes4c11,526$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.625151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d37…94c8backed Yes19c9,200$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.8750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes5c8,362$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.482910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes7c8,227$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.790%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes12c7,321$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…96bfbacked Yes14c6,968$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c6,801$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.892324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked No77c6,116$4,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.52966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c6,058$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.22912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes5c5,799$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes3c5,360$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes15c5,215$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.731546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c5,120$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.381306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2af…d2a3backed Yes9c5,108$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes3c5,016$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.714610.9%5 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes1c4,821$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c4,701$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.11884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes16c4,558$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.8230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b9…0847backed Yes3c4,509$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes1c4,444$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.22825%2 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+373.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes8c4,175$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.983737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes15c3,873$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.8210739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes12c3,831$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.8715446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes17c3,496$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.06397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x55d7…008dbacked Yes4c3,465$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.241612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-73.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b5…8378backed Yes8c3,200$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x233d…6197backed Yes4c3,122$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes3c3,005$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.44932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c2,995$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.11212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed Yes5c2,795$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,789$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes3c2,564$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.487711.7%9 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4705…3988backed Yes8c2,501$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes6c2,360$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.983417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa953…8bf7backed Yes22c2,281$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.842965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd063…04c7backed Yes9c2,272$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a6…1ffebacked Yes7c2,157$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,132$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.42812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes3c2,114$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x200e…4048backed Yes21c2,097$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.23922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes7c2,095$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6832023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes4c1,976$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7803…2a7cbacked Yes9c1,720$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Yes2c1,704$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.181127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed No79c1,550$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.52748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bec…b445backed Yes10c1,531$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c1,506$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.0130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bdd…43c6backed Yes17c1,472$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e0…fc2dbacked Yes24c1,402$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes9c1,400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9904…5ac8backed No72c1,380$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+149.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4616…66e6backed Yes3c1,369$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.04922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes18c1,365$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.673033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes4c1,333$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c1,329$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ac…fd5bbacked Yes15c1,264$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes9c1,253$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f6…fb00backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced0…c680backed Yes14c1,245$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed No75c1,239$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.411060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…5aafbacked Yes12c1,232$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.891546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39bf…e604backed Yes8c1,188$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4177…366bbacked Yes11c1,186$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f6…026ebacked Yes9c1,186$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.761225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fe0…4b59backed Yes9c1,170$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3607…83ccbacked No80c1,154$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c1,141$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.22664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes8c1,094$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.282810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes28c1,066$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.822839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c2…3d83backed Yes17c1,057$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes19c1,013$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.62147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-90.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa657…00bfbacked Yes15c1,011$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77d6…ea2abacked Yes10c1,010$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+78.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d7…715dbacked Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d99…1b57backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c992.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes12c986.82$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6713538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e11…cbcdbacked Yes9c937.3$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a9…db57backed Yes11c911.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c4…c8fbbacked No73c910.77$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.791060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…1768backed Yes6c862.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c845.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1921015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf597…2370backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes3c830.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.814520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes18c817.34$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.037011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf95d…e957backed Yes20c807.13$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes18c800.27$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeea…a889backed Yes6c799.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes12c751.69$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.224531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes27c717.37$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.521323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c706.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes4c696.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.381822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes5c685.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.554214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.