TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,283,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,283,730 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x264c…bacabacked No0c453,615$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5185149%25 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d4…8d71backed No0c427,979$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…c686backed No0c244,015$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb418…685ebacked No0c112,671$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…bf04backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2963…046bbacked No1c65,274$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+261.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9058…2101backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0813…977ebacked No0c46,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No9c36,501$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.631050%5 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac63…5083backed No1c34,073$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-74.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161c…dc79backed No0c32,663$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b16…2d1cbacked No1c31,299$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x876a…0e2cbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750e…b479backed No4c26,804$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c50…44fabacked No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b47…d49abacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea38…af81backed No0c17,700$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…a42dbacked No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No1c13,872$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.162910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6deb…f584backed No1c13,867$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8780%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked No1c10,033$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.177044.3%31 W · 39 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1def…f7bfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6716…5eb4backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c8…5cf2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No0c10,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.513538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…48b5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca87…8e3dbacked No1c9,901$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d5…ff2dbacked No0c9,120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe260…6599backed No0c8,130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cb…c14ebacked No0c6,810$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5791…782fbacked No0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No1c6,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-82.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fcb…a10dbacked No13c5,204$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x413e…1f18backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No10c4,913$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.044330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No10c3,665$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.232023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked No11c2,200$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423013.3%4 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68f…dd29backed No1c2,167$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No12c2,106$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.084831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No7c2,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1464112.2%5 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc801…cc76backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf12…ba35backed No1c1,833$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0c…20bfbacked No9c1,692$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.321040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No9c1,577$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9c…1068backed No1c1,577$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0580%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked No2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9edd…6fe3backed No8c1,472$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No10c1,332$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.643154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No15c1,222$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.324325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.216516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked No9c1,117$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No6c999.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No9c937.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x785d…4e88backed No9c912.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.982035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No8c749.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb70…276dbacked No8c714.71$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde6b…f2d6backed No14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick16cpaid+517.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No5c700$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed No10c600$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No9c555$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.956651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d46…f48fbacked No12c499.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked No13c499.97$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No9c492$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.382532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+197.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked No12c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a48…497ebacked No9c388.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0707…310abacked No5c342.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf7…29fdbacked No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277231.9%23 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26c…4bc9backed No12c277.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf203…c9cfbacked No15c260.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a5…ed7fbacked No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed No11c220$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…d7c5backed No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8610…a249backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eab…9c53backed No17c192.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked No9c177.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.972634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No11c168.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1613858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92ea…c4a6backed No13c156.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No10c151.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.967525.3%19 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-57.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xea43…ace4backed No18c138.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a2…510bbacked No13c120.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c3…4613backed No14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…b647backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41a8…ca26backed Yes80c19.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.