TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c79…1d00

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$572.73
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,537.9
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$124.7
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+320.7%+$1,078.88
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$733Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$499.63
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,903Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+638.5%+$12,152.89
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.49
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$467Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$218.52
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.7
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$30.84
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 7?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$731.33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,378Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,378.32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$933Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+180.4%+$1,682.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+657.5%+$3,905.65
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+479.6%+$479.63
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.84
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$373
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.89
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.62
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$494.52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$706.3
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+282.2%+$448.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$791.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,053.92
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$517.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,091Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,090.65
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,260.28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.6
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,274Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,273.52
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$830
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,888Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.7%+$5,111.78
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.14
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,273Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,273.16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$618.51
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$669Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$669.06
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.99
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$576.09
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+33.3%+$66.69
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$789Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$788.64
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$141.03
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$120.68
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$223.9
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+63.2%+$48.24
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$320
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$366.07
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+76%+$118.71
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$57.92
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$63.29
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Will Trump nominate Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$461.29
Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$473.09
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$20.45
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+216.2%+$1,803.01
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.3
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$224.89
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,462.02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$287.86
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$233.96
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$573.78
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$757.59
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$2,190.61
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+81.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.