TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,899 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes1c6,121$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.631020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes1c5,750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.115915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes3c5,086$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.894330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c3,762$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.261306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes12c2,004$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.12825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes46c1,440$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x680b…1077backed No65c1,028$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.163265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2887011.4%8 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc373…c939backed Yes8c799.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes20c775.81$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0729747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac8f…700dbacked Yes4c729.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No45c707.3$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+50.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes40c667.82$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.51130%0 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes20c561.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6970…ef65backed Yes57c524.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcd…009ebacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c9…cd8bbacked No74c473.2$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes11c454.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.288617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes13c399.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2532023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a2…510bbacked Yes31c397.66$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c382.94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.684520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c336$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x984d…74fdbacked Yes30c330.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.352015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed Yes6c330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked No75c318.53$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.09887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+63.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1026233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes8c300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+125.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick34cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes46c277.27$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.81742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes21c267.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No19c262$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.54852.1%25 W · 23 L+10.4wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No22c250.47$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.076521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes18c250.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.357812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf80c…3e64backed Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes43c234.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-74.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x342c…2454backed No71c229.39$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.931266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked No43c199.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…b159backed Yes37c199.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c181.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f5…595ebacked Yes9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…9e71backed Yes15c164.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes43c161.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes53c160.91$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c156.18$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0313858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked No77c147.24$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.921040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No70c141.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.911973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes36c134$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2421228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9245…b570backed Yes76c131.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes69c127.97$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…56bfbacked No78c127.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f17…88eabacked No40c125.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes15c121.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.062010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a7…f75abacked No41c121.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.25337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe179…63e9backed No68c119.03$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5efb…55a1backed No42c109.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.655100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes11c109.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed Yes13c107.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146338.1%24 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…9756backed Yes21c107.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…4957backed Yes74c106.76$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes22c104.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1218637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No62c100.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.167921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x378b…4c2cbacked No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e30…d732backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes59c99.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…12debacked Yes42c96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.321233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No78c86.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.043070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No72c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3310739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes49c79.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes37c77.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.543740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+272.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd3…637fbacked No40c74.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e52…98fbbacked Yes27c72.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No24c71.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.145246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc435…ead7backed No78c65.83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No55c60.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.255337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes26c56.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.899442.6%40 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No58c51.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.453354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80f6…dd1fbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…988cbacked No42c48.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c46.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5919419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes30c44.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.394528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c6…1a04backed No64c43.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes33c42.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes27c40.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9221815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x91b5…c308backed No40c40.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.83839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc174…b1aabacked Yes66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.271154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202045%9 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…980cbacked Yes76c39.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.081060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa680…ef58backed No49c32.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes53c32.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2817752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes62c31.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.392867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked No54c27.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.592441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes43c27.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No69c26.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.031421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9f…2a2fbacked No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.