Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826bd8cf8bcb24f32cd5c16d01fcd447d9ff1bd5d0bd7d092e14836e7519e0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,899 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 6,121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 5,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 3c | 5,086$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,762$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 12c | 2,004$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,440$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.5 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…1077backed No | 65c | 1,028$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.16 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…c939backed Yes | 8c | 799.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 20c | 775.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…700dbacked Yes | 4c | 729.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 45c | 707.3$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e14…7c43backed Yes | 40c | 667.82$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes | 20c | 561.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…ef65backed Yes | 57c | 524.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…009ebacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…cd8bbacked No | 74c | 473.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 454.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 13c | 399.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…510bbacked Yes | 31c | 397.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 382.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 336$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 30c | 330.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked No | 75c | 318.53$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 46c | 277.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 21c | 267.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 262$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 22c | 250.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.07 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 250.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 43c | 234.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…2454backed No | 71c | 229.39$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 43c | 199.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…b159backed Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 181.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…595ebacked Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9e71backed Yes | 15c | 164.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 43c | 161.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 53c | 160.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 156.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 77c | 147.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 70c | 141.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 134$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9245…b570backed Yes | 76c | 131.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 69c | 127.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…56bfbacked No | 78c | 127.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f17…88eabacked No | 40c | 125.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 15c | 121.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a7…f75abacked No | 41c | 121.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 68c | 119.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed No | 42c | 109.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…9756backed Yes | 21c | 107.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 74c | 106.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 62c | 100.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…4c2cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…d732backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 78c | 86.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 49c | 79.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 37c | 77.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…637fbacked No | 40c | 74.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…98fbbacked Yes | 27c | 72.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 24c | 71.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…ead7backed No | 78c | 65.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 55c | 60.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 26c | 56.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 51.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f6…dd1fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…988cbacked No | 42c | 48.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 46.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 30c | 44.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…1a04backed No | 64c | 43.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 33c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 40.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…c308backed No | 40c | 40.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Yes | 76c | 39.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…ef58backed No | 49c | 32.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 53c | 32.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 31.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 54c | 27.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 43c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 69c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…2a2fbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.