TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,740 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xff7c…b233backed Yes6c19,543$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.6832023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes5c18,830$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.91233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes5c18,103$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.151020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0425…3c26backed Yes6c11,159$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c7,884$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.051306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes8c7,340$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.624330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda71…9351backed Yes1c6,871$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes5c5,556$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe12e…c453backed Yes2c5,387$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.94166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-86.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes5c5,226$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes9c5,049$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.756361.9%39 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes6c4,803$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.667812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes6c3,602$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…1910backed Yes6c3,546$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Yes6c3,194$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.941926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98e…a597backed Yes5c3,041$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes7c2,999$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.935115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes7c2,872$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes7c2,815$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.52224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…4b23backed Yes5c2,764$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34c…d8b7backed Yes6c2,586$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes7c2,456$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x984d…74fdbacked Yes4c2,440$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd2…8772backed Yes2c2,200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e62…c577backed Yes6c2,031$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.66214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…71cebacked Yes6c1,928$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-90.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes7c1,869$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.592722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaddc…1cf7backed Yes5c1,811$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ad…60e2backed Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161c…dc79backed Yes8c1,563$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes8c1,518$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…c3c5backed Yes6c1,410$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f8…0e10backed Yes7c1,384$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes9c1,320$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes5c1,155$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x452d…2804backed Yes4c1,102$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af5…0985backed Yes5c1,090$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd049…5de7backed Yes8c1,022$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes10c1,008$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes7c1,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69140%0 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes29c980.82$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes7c950.2$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes7c932.35$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.94156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c916.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.28908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes7c859.11$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f5…b2f4backed Yes7c855$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ee…24e7backed Yes6c800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes6c791.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8635…6972backed No63c789.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes6c785.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No41c780.58$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.542650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c773.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.091212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1de…74e2backed No41c748.67$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes3c730.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc5…48a4backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes7c679.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.431884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…af37backed Yes7c666$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbace…3429backed No64c662.9$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.021266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed No79c631.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.156761.2%41 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735b…4c46backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f3…85cabacked Yes6c600$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff52…c796backed Yes7c561.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.271040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes5c553.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2521011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c550.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.581,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes4c518.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.912010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4134…f72dbacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc322…2faebacked Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ec…143cbacked Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23b…5078backed Yes20c492.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes6c492.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes14c491.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.488617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec2…7217backed Yes4c461.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…2befbacked Yes7c440.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.841811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43a3…5812backed Yes9c430.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…732abacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes6c402.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.234214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26eb…80cebacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f0…e18ebacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e0…ad22backed Yes3c393.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e9…4262backed Yes4c359.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes7c355.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.892441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af1…80eabacked Yes13c343.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes7c318.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes4c300.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11205%1 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-90%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes52c299.98$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.391540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b1…5bcbbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x817f…bf28backed No43c273.63$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.231060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb81f…e36fbacked Yes8c263.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d3…3db7backed Yes5c260$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x538d…e85ebacked Yes6c256.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes5c255.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93130%0 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87b4…2656backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6721…0d5dbacked Yes5c213.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.