Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6c1797c0e61b9bc23f5813fdd39d3674bbce15affbb1f816128fda6014c4bfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,740 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 6c | 19,543$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.68 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 5c | 18,830$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 5c | 18,103$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…3c26backed Yes | 6c | 11,159$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 7,884$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.05 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 8c | 7,340$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.62 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 1c | 6,871$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,556$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 2c | 5,387$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,226$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 9c | 5,049$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.75 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,803$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,602$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 6c | 3,546$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Yes | 6c | 3,194$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.94 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 5c | 3,041$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 2,999$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.93 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,872$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 2,815$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.52 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…4b23backed Yes | 5c | 2,764$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…d8b7backed Yes | 6c | 2,586$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 7c | 2,456$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,440$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 6c | 2,031$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…71cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,928$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 7c | 1,869$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…1cf7backed Yes | 5c | 1,811$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…60e2backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…dc79backed Yes | 8c | 1,563$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,518$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…c3c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,410$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 1,384$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,320$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,155$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…2804backed Yes | 4c | 1,102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…0985backed Yes | 5c | 1,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 8c | 1,022$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 29c | 980.82$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 7c | 950.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 7c | 932.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 916.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 7c | 859.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…b2f4backed Yes | 7c | 855$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…24e7backed Yes | 6c | 800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 6c | 791.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…6972backed No | 63c | 789.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 785.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 41c | 780.58$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 773.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…74e2backed No | 41c | 748.67$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 3c | 730.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…48a4backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 7c | 679.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…af37backed Yes | 7c | 666$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed No | 64c | 662.9$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 79c | 631.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…4c46backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…85cabacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…c796backed Yes | 7c | 561.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 553.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 550.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 4c | 518.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4134…f72dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…2faebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…5078backed Yes | 20c | 492.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 492.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 14c | 491.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec2…7217backed Yes | 4c | 461.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 7c | 440.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a3…5812backed Yes | 9c | 430.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…732abacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 402.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…80cebacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f0…e18ebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…ad22backed Yes | 3c | 393.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e9…4262backed Yes | 4c | 359.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 7c | 355.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…80eabacked Yes | 13c | 343.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 7c | 318.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 4c | 300.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -90%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 52c | 299.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b1…5bcbbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed No | 43c | 273.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…e36fbacked Yes | 8c | 263.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…e85ebacked Yes | 6c | 256.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 5c | 255.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…0d5dbacked Yes | 5c | 213.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.