Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72c5e7bd1beed10acd5e855b501f448587f7ccbc383e6ddfc4edc9f951b0ab0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,043 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,391$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 5c | 2,174$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,507$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 31c | 1,271$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 69c | 1,000$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 34c | 754$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 687.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…16b1backed Yes | 2c | 680.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 7c | 580$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…b468backed Yes | 17c | 473.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 19c | 457.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 433.04$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…c939backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 78c | 376.74$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 17c | 288.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…455ebacked Yes | 20c | 255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…3e64backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 238.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 232.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…9cefbacked Yes | 11c | 229.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 223.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…a067backed No | 80c | 213$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 78c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 32c | 189.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14a7…f75abacked No | 70c | 143.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 121.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 118.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 12c | 106.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 49c | 103.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 80c | 102.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3619…6e7abacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 70c | 79.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 63.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…f0a0backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 23c | 58.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 74c | 56.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 55.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…1d69backed No | 80c | 48.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 47.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 69c | 41.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…ed78backed No | 78c | 40.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed No | 79c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 31c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 47c | 33.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 53c | 30.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfa…cceabacked No | 72c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 68c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.