TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $602,963 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83c4…d55ebacked No0c63,884$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No0c51,096$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.354831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked No0c25,360$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3690%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1def…f7bfbacked No0c22,601$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2963…046bbacked No0c20,248$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+261.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb157…f7cebacked No1c18,793$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No0c17,132$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…2b64backed No0c16,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161c…dc79backed No0c15,030$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x267a…f31ebacked Yes38c14,654$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,085.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked No1c13,932$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.462025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No26c12,830$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,359.0530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd1…ea75backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…bf28backed No62c10,787$6,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,689.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ac…5744backed No0c10,627$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9466…a745backed No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae8…e09bbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf37e…b1b3backed No0c6,925$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbed…804ebacked No4c6,167$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.461414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-70.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe172…248abacked No1c5,839$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes70c5,510$3,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.571020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8610…a249backed No1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No4c4,450$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1975635.7%20 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Yes72c4,050$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.821926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a31…cfc7backed No62c3,867$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb60…a39fbacked Yes42c3,553$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes50c3,160$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.651233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6341backed No0c2,666$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.34119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-87.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c7…4dbebacked No10c2,549$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-74.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes38c2,465$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.814526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No18c2,343$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.619422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No14c2,069$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.464330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bf5…b17fbacked No7c1,779$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.793342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddd5…ece3backed No3c1,620$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d06…397ebacked Yes41c1,487$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…dc98backed No53c1,306$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eba…3feabacked Yes77c1,303$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes35c1,239$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.3521228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes56c1,114$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-74.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No29c1,113$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.458617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed No20c1,051$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No54c1,033$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.3910739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No40c1,031$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.250%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes71c1,008$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.322330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No44c976.68$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.635337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e92…1910backed Yes32c974.7$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.28137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c960.62$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.3330718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked No59c960.17$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes35c943.17$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.175545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c941.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2612011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59db…1d13backed No25c929$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.091770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6425…591bbacked No46c898.62$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658b…2bebbacked No16c725.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50c…4af1backed No63c700.6$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.041540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe421…bf1ebacked Yes43c698.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.19580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+84.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c0…136abacked Yes34c668.04$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.911010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes20c667.46$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.012722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…22e1backed Yes75c603.86$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes18c599.64$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.73268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+164.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed No18c553.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes42c552$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.186361.9%39 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2752650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bfc…f43dbacked No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce8…86b3backed Yes79c498.97$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.85366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e04…1320backed No73c495.82$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes21c486.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.0313949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed No53c470.47$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+211.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23b…5078backed Yes43c461.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes59c460.87$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.2113858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec0…798bbacked No40c460$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c449.22$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f9…9478backed Yes69c431.89$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8879…bc0bbacked No40c427$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked Yes26c422.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.951060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e59…a24abacked No40c417$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked No25c399.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes76c399.57$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.963228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes34c388.5$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd006…5358backed No40c385$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5d…d917backed No71c377.49$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.291070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6678…52cabacked No40c362$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1de…74e2backed No45c360$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517f…ea2abacked Yes28c359.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+259.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…5b1ebacked No40c357$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9503…c47fbacked No73c349.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eff…69d2backed No40c345$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No46c333.13$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.567812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes31c324.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No56c319.9$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.043070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x984d…74fdbacked Yes32c310.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.92015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes55c301.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.671650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…b3fcbacked No20c295.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc735…fc7bbacked Yes60c292$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed No59c289.94$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.082128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93c6…1a04backed No8c278.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…ebf7backed Yes40c277.49$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.74977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+52.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa092…11e3backed Yes75c276.92$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+81.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No64c275$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.393357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4229…a471backed Yes60c275$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.