Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b007b04f52ba685309cbf75379ccf8b40e0db01da6532ca537c5fc5ad48f96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…decbbacked Yes | 1c | 18,718$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 0c | 14,966$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 13,294$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,604$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 1c | 6,420$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…23e5backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,932$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 1c | 4,924$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…d385backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538d…e85ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,937$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,536$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,413$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…5744backed Yes | 0c | 3,016$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,972$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…7aa4backed Yes | 3c | 2,864$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e69…479fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…d422backed Yes | 1c | 2,273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…2faebacked Yes | 2c | 2,137$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 2,020$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…6de0backed Yes | 3c | 1,924$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…7092backed Yes | 1c | 1,655$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2678…88a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,612$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…16b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa790…0693backed Yes | 1c | 1,518$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…7ce5backed Yes | 4c | 1,509$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…143cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4134…f72dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,498$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…85cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…a5c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…f596backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 6c | 578.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…5dafbacked Yes | 6c | 289.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.