Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f574053862df8cabe8e2ad401d719cd438f58075185991594f8784dbbda115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,336 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 12c | 26,307$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…8518backed Yes | 0c | 11,084$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 10c | 8,268$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb60…a39fbacked Yes | 18c | 6,514$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 15c | 5,556$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.33 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 5,402$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.79 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 14c | 3,792$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.17 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,668$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Yes | 19c | 2,124$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,052$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 15c | 1,978$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 9c | 1,830$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,711$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…d8b7backed Yes | 19c | 1,490$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,409$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,399$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 17c | 1,222$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 15c | 1,184$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 16c | 1,069$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,046$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 39c | 1,045$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.82 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…3598backed Yes | 3c | 944$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…8ecebacked Yes | 7c | 887.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 861.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 856.39$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 17c | 839.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…f48fbacked Yes | 14c | 833$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…74fdbacked Yes | 12c | 829.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 14c | 759.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 672$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4134…f72dbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e69…479fbacked Yes | 4c | 629.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…7767backed Yes | 15c | 626.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…9694backed Yes | 62c | 596.22$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…0e10backed Yes | 19c | 568.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…0985backed Yes | 16c | 558.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 9c | 551.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 14c | 542.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…56e6backed Yes | 18c | 540.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…605bbacked Yes | 4c | 535.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 16c | 507.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 18c | 500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 15c | 435.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…e09bbacked Yes | 24c | 412.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 24c | 400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 8c | 380.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 354.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 13c | 310.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 48c | 310.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +192%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes | 13c | 301.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…6b34backed Yes | 18c | 300.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 299.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…e377backed Yes | 16c | 287.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed No | 66c | 285.69$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 13c | 269.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 9c | 240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…12bfbacked Yes | 17c | 235.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 9c | 212.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 13c | 206.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 201.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 13c | 191.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…16b1backed Yes | 6c | 185.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…aafdbacked Yes | 16c | 181.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 26c | 177$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes | 18c | 162.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -90%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a3…5812backed Yes | 25c | 160.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…0625backed Yes | 13c | 156.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 151.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…0d7abacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…8012backed No | 77c | 143.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…1c52backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 15c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 74c | 136$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 48c | 133.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x053a…b6d6backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b7…6d1fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…26fabacked Yes | 21c | 119.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…5880backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609e…2da9backed Yes | 26c | 115.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…69c5backed Yes | 17c | 113$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…7be6backed Yes | 15c | 111.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…6314backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…978bbacked Yes | 13c | 109.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…60d0backed Yes | 19c | 107.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e1…ca65backed Yes | 16c | 106.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.