TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,336 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes12c26,307$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.021020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…8518backed Yes0c11,084$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c0…136abacked Yes10c8,268$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.151010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb60…a39fbacked Yes18c6,514$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes15c5,556$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.332330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes13c5,402$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.797812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes14c3,792$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.1732023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c3,668$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.721306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Yes19c2,124$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.71926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12e…c453backed Yes4c2,062$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.22166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-86.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes11c2,052$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.714526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e62…c577backed Yes15c1,978$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes9c1,830$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-83.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc95d…aa4bbacked Yes16c1,711$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb34c…d8b7backed Yes19c1,490$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-46.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes16c1,409$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.37616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1695…324cbacked Yes10c1,399$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1342025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes17c1,222$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes15c1,184$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.62224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-55.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes16c1,069$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.111050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c1,046$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No39c1,045$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.823740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+272.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b53…3598backed Yes3c944$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…8ecebacked Yes7c887.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes12c861.35$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.898617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes15c856.39$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.465115.7%8 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes17c839.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.481010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-86.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d46…f48fbacked Yes14c833$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984d…74fdbacked Yes12c829.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes14c759.86$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.92722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes9c672$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4134…f72dbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e69…479fbacked Yes4c629.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…7767backed Yes15c626.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544914.3%7 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd702…9694backed Yes62c596.22$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f8…0e10backed Yes19c568.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af5…0985backed Yes16c558.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes9c551.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.871884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes14c542.35$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5110739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d14…56e6backed Yes18c540.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30e9…605bbacked Yes4c535.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes16c507.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.172634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes18c500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7905…a886backed Yes15c435.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.79128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfae8…e09bbacked Yes24c412.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes24c400$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.42441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed Yes10c399.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-77.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes8c380.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.481233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c354.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.34912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes13c310.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405121.6%11 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No48c310.4$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.721361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+192%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf561…7c7cbacked Yes13c301.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.122623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…6b34backed Yes18c300.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed Yes15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c299.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5630839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed6e…e377backed Yes16c287.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbace…3429backed No66c285.69$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.131266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes13c269.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.053531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+78.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a5b…3772backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed Yes9c240$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…12bfbacked Yes17c235.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes9c212.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.093218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes13c206.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.562015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes8c201.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20378.1%3 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e92…1910backed Yes13c191.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b33…16b1backed Yes6c185.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef5…aafdbacked Yes16c181.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes26c177$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.473839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c6…cb1fbacked Yes18c162.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.88205%1 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-90%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x43a3…5812backed Yes25c160.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee95…0625backed Yes13c156.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes8c151.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1616516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…0d7abacked Yes68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…8012backed No77c143.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b4…1c52backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes15c137$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472c…a000backed No74c136$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.97875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed Yes48c133.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.271921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick37cpaid+36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x053a…b6d6backed Yes19c131.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95130%0 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8b7…6d1fbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe754…19f4backed Yes18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x217f…26fabacked Yes21c119.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a3…5880backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x609e…2da9backed Yes26c115.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-70%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3054…69c5backed Yes17c113$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.18150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8581…7be6backed Yes15c111.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc5…6314backed Yes19c111$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1199…978bbacked Yes13c109.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1166…60d0backed Yes19c107.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e1…ca65backed Yes16c106.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162544%11 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.