TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f59…3637

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$72
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$202.09
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$96
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.31
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.73
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.63
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$266.52
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.72
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.12
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$308
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+120.8%+$462.16
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$111.1
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.27
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.42
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$948.39
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.38
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.26
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.47
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,143.4
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.61
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick37cpaid+36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.74
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.48
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+285.9%+$150.21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$949Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$1,209.55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$341.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.45
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,735.4%+$2,653.28
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.72
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$107.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.37
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$44.23
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+180.4%+$88.1
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$32.6
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+657.6%+$169.49
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.17
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.31
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.21
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$22.07
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.37
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.07
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+98.8%+$34.79
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 September 15-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$267.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$334
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.