Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6058553c2ef4ae7e83855d3d7481450bdbc2e46c650a4d9f7ce5d14950116ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 34c | 23,408$7,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,940.62 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 45c | 15,918$7,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,770.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 48c | 10,872$5,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,185.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…3545backed No | 71c | 10,260$7,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.37 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…efcebacked No | 76c | 5,973$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…dcd8backed No | 71c | 5,041$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 53c | 5,000$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.46 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 48c | 4,820$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326.94 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 22c | 4,400$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 69c | 4,009$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.74 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 25c | 3,277$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.53 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,054$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.06 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 52c | 2,616$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.83 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 74c | 2,311$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 79c | 1,818$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 32c | 839$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.48 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 30c | 682.13$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.91 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 32c | 668$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6306…852abacked Yes | 15c | 632$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x940a…840fbacked No | 71c | 615.94$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…71edbacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…9f84backed Yes | 19c | 465$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 455.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…e4cfbacked No | 35c | 431.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…6f57backed Yes | 39c | 397.93$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 386.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Yes | 16c | 337.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 45c | 220$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…b286backed No | 39c | 147.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…9397backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 16c | 125.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc87…2765backed Yes | 29c | 121.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…ea65backed Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80b…ed96backed No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…412cbacked No | 52c | 95.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…7803backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3a…089bbacked No | 77c | 88.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…21cabacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 14c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…fe5cbacked No | 26c | 76.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…338ebacked Yes | 68c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674e…4f16backed No | 31c | 61.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 72c | 59.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0772…be65backed Yes | 52c | 55.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b65…3497backed No | 53c | 54.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed No | 76c | 49.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…9232backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a93…3904backed Yes | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…f7cbbacked No | 46c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…527abacked No | 53c | 28.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…9823backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…a204backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 70c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…bbc7backed Yes | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 September 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.