TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 15-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33c2…9818backed Yes25c19,284$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.034242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x095a…2400backed No15c15,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,7501100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…f0b2backed No78c14,348$11,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.68944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes57c13,320$7,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,639.2287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes40c10,375$4,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,115.4458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc037…7240backed No50c7,818$3,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes20c5,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02037745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8004450%22 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c4,819$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No19c4,216$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.678231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes56c3,507$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.886026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes60c3,398$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.1163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No26c2,330$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.510545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No46c2,224$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.4824654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked No25c1,800$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d3…06eebacked No16c1,650$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.382532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f8…9f03backed No29c1,550$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes60c1,464$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.7813561.5%83 W · 52 L+16.5wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked No72c1,394$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.531741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No15c1,005$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57013863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b8…0a32backed No51c989.69$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.961080%8 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaefe…d7d4backed No42c969.05$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.052850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No48c961.52$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.998038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed No18c757.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.981855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+49.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed Yes15c714.13$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.46937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc1…ea30backed No10c650$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8b…3c19backed Yes56c599.99$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes21c587.45$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5240%0 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf650…1c51backed Yes64c450$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadeb…59e0backed Yes50c420$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…18abbacked Yes14c395.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.623345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca8…429cbacked Yes79c356.33$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38d…30dcbacked No24c258.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.33475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+99%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6af6…296ebacked No23c217.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.391050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked No78c203.55$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2326…7b65backed No22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…6cb0backed No28c151.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.193638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e7…b286backed No31c146.68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f81…6f57backed Yes48c122.84$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…f081backed Yes34c81.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Yes78c72.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.21147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-88.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd310…be53backed No75c65.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.766777.6%52 W · 15 L+12.1wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+22%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x57ab…3485backed No45c63$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e89…45f2backed Yes55c62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…4330backed Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2e…2ce0backed Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524a…4009backed No45c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…c33ebacked No45c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd6…337ebacked No45c58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e90…2280backed Yes55c58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2858…0241backed Yes55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc702…0541backed No45c57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb13…5c9fbacked Yes55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No79c56.51$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.822550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x719c…6788backed No45c56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea81…e136backed No45c56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2485…0cb2backed Yes55c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d87…4e60backed No45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6468…b530backed Yes55c54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d40…28e9backed No25c51.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.915058%29 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d3debacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.221236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf31…d2b9backed Yes65c46.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9232…c250backed Yes24c43.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3f…a7eebacked No45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bc…c771backed Yes55c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca2…ca68backed No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f47…338ebacked Yes64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.732927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9196…9656backed Yes55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1826…d276backed No45c39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe882…f03abacked No74c38.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bea…ff70backed No62c38.03$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d2…c769backed Yes32c35.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f8…44e5backed No80c34.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73fa…99cabacked Yes60c33.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd271…8cc6backed No33c30.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.252369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6434…d3eebacked No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef7…a204backed Yes72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5d…762abacked No58c27.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3877…f67bbacked No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87b2…8870backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4e…65f5backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2882…9e61backed Yes57c19.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.