Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd19d19bdd90115b3ebf864724027f835f92fb0192b1522d1525ddbf662a3cf02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 55c | 14,700$8,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,643.1 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 27c | 12,611$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 25c | 11,842$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.9 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 40c | 4,830$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.73 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 68c | 4,408$2,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.62 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…1f15backed No | 54c | 3,716$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 52c | 1,937$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 72c | 1,650$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.5 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd3…68d5backed No | 70c | 1,429$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 30c | 1,234$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.2 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed No | 62c | 1,044$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 18c | 870$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes | 33c | 700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…9826backed No | 67c | 700$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 46c | 690$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.17 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…bd16backed No | 65c | 662$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked No | 52c | 383.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf650…1c51backed Yes | 37c | 350$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 52c | 288.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3c83backed No | 70c | 286.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 25c | 274.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 45c | 274$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…0a32backed No | 74c | 256$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4e…31cbbacked No | 73c | 179.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…d6b3backed No | 62c | 161.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…ca68backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…338ebacked Yes | 28c | 126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes | 40c | 120.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 74c | 102.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 56c | 89.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…bf21backed Yes | 37c | 86.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…6f57backed Yes | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed No | 70c | 57.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214b…531dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe142…83c4backed Yes | 36c | 34.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…67fdbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…8926backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.