Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626bafb40cfe419b4f3aba1eed5ebf6c5b8303f612757c308ce4aa9320c0459e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 25c | 19,474$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880.87 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 3c | 12,341$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 67c | 10,717$7,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,533.05 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 28c | 6,311$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.42 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 59c | 4,267$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.95 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,746$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 35c | 2,916$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.34 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,278$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…90e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…d376backed Yes | 55c | 1,277$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 7c | 1,060$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Yes | 11c | 895.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked No | 66c | 894.32$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.15 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 5c | 485$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8cc6backed Yes | 42c | 312.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.27 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed No | 68c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…b286backed No | 63c | 43.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 15-21?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 September 15-21?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 September 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.