Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x891e1b317671ce63a3b56a89e5fd3a113b38b1775372d4536ba2e73284a85548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,320 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 6c | 11,900$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.17 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 7c | 9,974$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.83 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 10c | 9,939$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 8c | 6,423$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.18 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 8c | 5,284$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…1b76backed Yes | 10c | 2,921$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,376$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…28a7backed Yes | 22c | 1,220$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.99 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9a…cc61backed Yes | 7c | 1,220$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,131$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,112$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed Yes | 7c | 940$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d345backed Yes | 3c | 845.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 826$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 756$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 719.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 76c | 661.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 639.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 625.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 610.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 8c | 610$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec63…365bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…856fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…aa6cbacked Yes | 8c | 476.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…8559backed No | 66c | 451.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 438.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 7c | 436.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…541cbacked Yes | 6c | 352.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 339.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 14c | 334.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 330.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed No | 75c | 320.79$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…a64fbacked Yes | 6c | 308.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c7…e73fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…7029backed Yes | 6c | 256$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…af50backed Yes | 8c | 254.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…6695backed Yes | 8c | 250.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…c4d6backed Yes | 8c | 238.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…cac8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 22c | 185.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 154.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…7e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Yes | 9c | 137.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 136.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 126.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…f6f7backed Yes | 13c | 100.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…c648backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…fb14backed Yes | 24c | 97.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 76c | 66.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 53.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked Yes | 27c | 44.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 27c | 37.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 71c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.