TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcf56…ee5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$29.5
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$21.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$32.65
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$11.25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.85
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$13.1
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$25.5
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.32
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$91
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+28%+$65.67
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$23.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+222.6%+$69
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+277.4%+$147
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$61.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$102.8
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+29.9%+$23
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$134.52
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.8
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+268.1%+$218.5
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+48.8%+$24.93
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+77.9%+$131.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.61
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.52
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$19.08
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.68
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$70
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.2
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.2
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+284.6%+$47.82
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.29
Will Tim Kaine vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+66.4%+$8.26
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+56.3%+$108
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Edna Nabess win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.07
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$94.5
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+98%+$19.8
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+32.8%+$24.7
All 8 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.77
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$48.5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$29.03
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.38
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$43
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir dip to $126 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+254%+$28.7
Will Netflix dip to $70 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Ratesbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$28.06
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$153
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.71
Royals vs. Red Soxbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$595.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$26.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+28.7%+$66.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Akron vs. UABbacked Akron · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$135
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$38.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NCAA Tournament: No. 15 seed to pull off an upset?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.