Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x440e3ec3772936010fdbdf4d01cba2b7f7ab410577342a4bfb247bd0ce9fd834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,196$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 1,072$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 583.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…d4bcbacked No | 3c | 454.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 312.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 303.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 300$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 297.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 238.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 226.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 56c | 220$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 204$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 17c | 168.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 145.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 143.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 52c | 142.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 49c | 139.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 135.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 135.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 57c | 122.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 55c | 120.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 46c | 97.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 53c | 84.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 53c | 80.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 51c | 70.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 56c | 68.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 57c | 62.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 58.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 57.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…5620backed No | 36c | 57.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 56.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 48c | 54.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 58c | 51.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 54c | 51.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 62c | 48.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 50c | 42.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 40.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 42c | 35.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 35.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 34c | 31.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…ec95backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 50c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9063…433abacked No | 46c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 57c | 22.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.