Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70d890774f43e11fb822137c37840493f53759473db6f47cfc5ea8fa4123956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 35c | 951.04$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.7 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 826.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 515.17$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 447.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 210$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 163.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 160.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 149.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 148.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 32c | 148.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 146$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 9c | 135.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 31c | 122.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 121.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 111.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 15c | 92.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 76.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 66.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 62.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 50.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 50.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…cca4backed No | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.