TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$733,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$731,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $733,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe7cb…d447backed Yes66c49,525$32,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,996.343145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed No42c38,821$16,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,2502766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No8c22,274$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.7148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No26c16,810$4,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,444.8247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cc…033dbacked No0c14,498$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes45c12,615$5,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,996.9816739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No7c10,508$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.6522529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No21c8,650$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.0616231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes37c7,302$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,564.920143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No28c7,039$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.5616131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No16c7,031$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.6311323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No7c6,443$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.9814039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No19c6,079$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.7740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No43c5,855$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.7536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22be…6cb6backed No8c5,719$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d16…7228backed No34c5,413$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.753046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+33.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No7c5,198$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…f1d2backed No45c5,056$2,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,293.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes29c4,942$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.614337.2%16 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No24c4,893$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.1113942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked No19c4,373$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.172920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-53.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No15c4,290$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.2448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed No20c4,164$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.265139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed No23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9205950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No8c3,939$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0820736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd4…e792backed No54c3,717$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No44c3,416$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.5429254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No22c3,386$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9427643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a9…45e0backed No23c3,383$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No7c3,378$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.523717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed Yes53c3,327$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.022272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb77…4e6bbacked No46c3,300$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.823831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes35c3,147$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.487248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked No50c3,139$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.8511432.5%37 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No23c3,027$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.085414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c47…bcb4backed No41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a6c…004dbacked No22c2,860$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.382864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes77c2,800$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.474141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d7…1dcebacked No17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b5…2df2backed No17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed No15c2,388$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.768937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes61c2,316$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.7919449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No20c2,285$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.362718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6907…08f1backed Yes79c2,119$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed No14c2,070$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.832740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8982…af89backed No14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802825%7 W · 21 L-7.4wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes64c1,909$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.993759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes53c1,818$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.367745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No40c1,795$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.3528827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes64c1,730$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1515347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed No75c1,727$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…3fd5backed Yes31c1,714$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.961450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No55c1,700$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9376633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c1,620$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.794195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x654a…cc32backed Yes64c1,560$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.153158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed No61c1,543$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.373050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes51c1,542$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.755040%20 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c1,540$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.684625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No22c1,483$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6517129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2220…5db4backed No7c1,450$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.53863.2%24 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked No22c1,420$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.5618639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746b…8a94backed No7c1,408$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe239…5f1abacked No40c1,400$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04de…3a0dbacked No40c1,400$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2b…5d0abacked No40c1,400$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No17c1,310$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ee…780abacked No8c1,300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No38c1,295$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.741060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes58c1,283$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.3735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed No47c1,265$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.885639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No51c1,219$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.469545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f3…0f9cbacked No42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+169.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed Yes36c1,108$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.858741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No21c1,100$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…2599backed No50c1,091$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.465330.2%16 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes53c1,071$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.651353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd1…4244backed No16c1,062$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.924040%16 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…7965backed No13c1,055$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.662015%3 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3272…e542backed No29c1,050$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.993464.7%22 W · 12 L+7.3wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed Yes40c1,014$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa438…8605backed No46c1,013$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e1…69a6backed No10c1,005$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No44c1,002$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.6616832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No11c1,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed No19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1905123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398b…be1fbacked No50c989.54$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick65cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x124f…0deabacked Yes46c982.37$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.510132.7%33 W · 68 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e10…6c6cbacked Yes56c961.88$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.61540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked No4c953.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.061822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519e…edbdbacked No11c942.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0851…b8a0backed No49c912.99$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c3…b734backed No39c900$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7e…396bbacked No22c900$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830b…0a93backed Yes24c899.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.994459.1%26 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+50.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes54c894$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.1818929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed No23c888.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ebf…5bfabacked No48c837.48$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.095135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7676…3e69backed Yes60c835.79$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.781952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes36c834.32$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.1513864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.