Middle East · resolved market
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d4c453e155252d84becb7b26c2c686954ee5085dffd1e7062aca1763ef14c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $733,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $731,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $733,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 483 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 66c | 49,525$32,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,996.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed No | 42c | 38,821$16,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,250 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 8c | 22,274$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.71 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 26c | 16,810$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.82 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…033dbacked No | 0c | 14,498$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 45c | 12,615$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,996.98 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 7c | 10,508$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.65 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 21c | 8,650$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.06 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 37c | 7,302$2,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,564.9 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 28c | 7,039$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.56 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 16c | 7,031$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.63 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 7c | 6,443$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.98 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 19c | 6,079$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.77 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 43c | 5,855$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.75 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…6cb6backed No | 8c | 5,719$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 34c | 5,413$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 7c | 5,198$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…f1d2backed No | 45c | 5,056$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 29c | 4,942$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,521.61 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 24c | 4,893$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.11 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 19c | 4,373$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.17 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 15c | 4,290$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.24 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 20c | 4,164$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.26 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 8c | 3,939$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.08 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 54c | 3,717$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 44c | 3,416$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.54 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 22c | 3,386$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.94 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…45e0backed No | 23c | 3,383$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 3,378$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 53c | 3,327$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.02 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked No | 46c | 3,300$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.82 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 35c | 3,147$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.48 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 50c | 3,139$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.85 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 23c | 3,027$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.08 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…bcb4backed No | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…004dbacked No | 22c | 2,860$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.38 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 77c | 2,800$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.47 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…1dcebacked No | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…2df2backed No | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 15c | 2,388$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.76 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 61c | 2,316$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.79 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 20c | 2,285$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.36 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6907…08f1backed Yes | 79c | 2,119$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed No | 14c | 2,070$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 64c | 1,909$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.99 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,818$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.36 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 40c | 1,795$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.35 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,730$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed No | 75c | 1,727$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3fd5backed Yes | 31c | 1,714$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 55c | 1,700$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 1,620$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed Yes | 64c | 1,560$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 61c | 1,543$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.37 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,542$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.75 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 1,540$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 22c | 1,483$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.65 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…5db4backed No | 7c | 1,450$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 22c | 1,420$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.56 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746b…8a94backed No | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…5f1abacked No | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…3a0dbacked No | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2b…5d0abacked No | 40c | 1,400$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 17c | 1,310$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.45 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…780abacked No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 38c | 1,295$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 58c | 1,283$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.37 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 47c | 1,265$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.88 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 51c | 1,219$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…0f9cbacked No | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 36c | 1,108$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.85 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 21c | 1,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…2599backed No | 50c | 1,091$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.46 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 53c | 1,071$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…4244backed No | 16c | 1,062$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…7965backed No | 13c | 1,055$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…e542backed No | 29c | 1,050$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 40c | 1,014$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa438…8605backed No | 46c | 1,013$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e1…69a6backed No | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 44c | 1,002$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.66 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 11c | 1,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…be1fbacked No | 50c | 989.54$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 46c | 982.37$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.5 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…6c6cbacked Yes | 56c | 961.88$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 4c | 953.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519e…edbdbacked No | 11c | 942.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…b8a0backed No | 49c | 912.99$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…b734backed No | 39c | 900$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked No | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 24c | 899.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.99 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 54c | 894$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.18 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed No | 23c | 888.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 48c | 837.48$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.09 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…3e69backed Yes | 60c | 835.79$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 36c | 834.32$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.15 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?this page
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 23?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 24?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 3?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.