Middle East · resolved market
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6897445596086aeee9484f9b5a003f0ed5ddb727e52de92c66ab2a2562aeaa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 4c | 27,481$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.18 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 16,346$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 73c | 5,360$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.99 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,670$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…b05bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,322$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…59c7backed Yes | 7c | 2,184$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 24c | 2,179$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 23c | 2,085$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.63 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,089$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 8c | 999.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 963.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 956.28$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 951.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 927.65$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 892.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 6c | 846.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 27c | 802.33$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.15 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 11c | 770.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 735.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…754fbacked Yes | 11c | 655.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 3c | 655.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes | 10c | 642.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 35c | 569.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…374cbacked Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…8d18backed Yes | 28c | 342.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 71c | 302.12$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked Yes | 35c | 289.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 30c | 261.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 22c | 222.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 5c | 212.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 68c | 211.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked Yes | 15c | 200.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…f29ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 18c | 196.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 70c | 183.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 162.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 155.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked No | 79c | 149$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 137.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…3c13backed Yes | 11c | 133.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 29c | 129.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes | 25c | 118.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 30c | 116.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 16c | 116.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 47c | 111.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 17c | 110.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 10c | 103.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…c6b1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…92dbbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 90.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…f675backed No | 78c | 90.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d86…e5d1backed No | 56c | 82.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 26c | 80.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 23c | 74.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 16c | 74.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 27c | 73.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 65c | 66.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 44.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa944…d9cfbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 31c | 33.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…150abacked No | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?this page
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 23?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 24?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 1?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 2?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 3?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?No won
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.