TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f5e…da72

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7123.9%17 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+95.6%+$47.79
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.93
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.74
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$143.9
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.76
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$144.12
Spread: Kings (-3.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$22.62
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+79.7%+$55.82
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$24.55
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers: 1H Moneylinebacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$12.69
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+76.3%+$15.26
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
Mavericks vs. Cavaliersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+526.7%+$210.67
Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.02
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$30.09
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$54.43
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+171%+$51.3
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+117.9%+$41.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$150.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.