Commodities · resolved market
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x798e2f7932b4e46b328db3ab9b2858585892db71789e081eefbe9245482b461c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $537,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,435$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c81…edb5backed Yes | 3c | 4,635$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 4,578$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 59c | 4,400$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.7 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…4d18backed Yes | 4c | 4,372$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…2e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,156$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 35c | 4,096$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…7918backed Yes | 4c | 3,865$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…344bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,846$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…0d83backed Yes | 6c | 3,841$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…0d4fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,556$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 10c | 3,442$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.2 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 3,397$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…d5debacked Yes | 3c | 3,168$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…07c4backed Yes | 3c | 3,066$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…4fa5backed Yes | 4c | 3,048$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…b2b0backed Yes | 4c | 3,043$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,038$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.95 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 2c | 2,993$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…6a97backed Yes | 4c | 2,831$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…1016backed Yes | 4c | 2,787$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…fbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,656$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…8193backed Yes | 3c | 2,615$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…8375backed Yes | 4c | 2,591$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…8aa4backed Yes | 4c | 2,467$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31c…c338backed Yes | 4c | 2,387$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…44d6backed Yes | 3c | 2,342$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…b976backed Yes | 3c | 2,337$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…44e2backed Yes | 3c | 2,274$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ac…840fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,272$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…19a3backed Yes | 3c | 2,267$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…4a05backed Yes | 4c | 2,236$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…2152backed Yes | 3c | 2,234$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…c442backed Yes | 3c | 2,224$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…3a78backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…e3e7backed Yes | 4c | 2,156$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 2c | 2,078$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…3418backed Yes | 4c | 2,068$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…c361backed Yes | 3c | 2,067$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…3e70backed Yes | 4c | 2,049$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad9…a138backed Yes | 3c | 2,028$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…2dd8backed Yes | 3c | 2,016$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1609…ed5abacked Yes | 4c | 2,006$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…e09dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,945$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…23b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,873$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…765abacked Yes | 3c | 1,841$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…0b7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,838$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…09f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,718$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c5…9f99backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…1888backed Yes | 3c | 1,644$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…da97backed Yes | 3c | 1,614$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…f4c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,610$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…611abacked Yes | 3c | 1,576$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…b006backed Yes | 3c | 1,561$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,557$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…58edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,540$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…4e64backed Yes | 3c | 1,510$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…efdebacked Yes | 3c | 1,485$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…24afbacked Yes | 3c | 1,464$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a76…5a43backed Yes | 3c | 1,437$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…0473backed Yes | 3c | 1,380$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 1c | 1,371$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d15…5175backed Yes | 3c | 1,344$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…24eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,314$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289d…81d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…5aabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,301$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4519…cc15backed Yes | 3c | 1,291$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…7046backed Yes | 5c | 1,265$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…99b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,231$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…b7a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,229$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…122abacked Yes | 3c | 1,225$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…a163backed Yes | 3c | 1,224$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,175$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…19e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,165$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e3…c4f0backed Yes | 9c | 1,147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc9…a089backed Yes | 3c | 1,136$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…2428backed Yes | 3c | 1,129$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…798ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,123$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…b895backed Yes | 3c | 1,109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…7b53backed Yes | 3c | 1,104$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…51acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,094$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…9ce8backed Yes | 4c | 1,086$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6c…671fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,085$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,084$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…6a8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eac…1770backed Yes | 3c | 1,065$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 3c | 1,062$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…c5abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,029$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…50a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,028$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…c008backed Yes | 3c | 1,019$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…e6f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…cf6fbacked Yes | 4c | 990$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…a2b6backed Yes | 3c | 983$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73fe…a025backed Yes | 4c | 982$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…84babacked Yes | 9c | 969.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6665…71c5backed Yes | 4c | 961$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…9018backed Yes | 4c | 957$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.