Commodities · resolved market
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257d9c62557f0936ffacf3adb7cb7826caa0888dcb9d963f4e7546a03e695609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,053 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 13,028$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 8,713$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…9c22backed Yes | 1c | 6,630$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,231$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…3653backed Yes | 1c | 3,908$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 24c | 3,903$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.04 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…9548backed Yes | 3c | 3,724$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…79abbacked Yes | 5c | 3,227$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 16c | 2,411$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf179…8354backed Yes | 0c | 2,133$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,101$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…0d83backed Yes | 3c | 2,063$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,883$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…0667backed Yes | 11c | 1,518$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 1c | 1,155$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,146$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…8845backed Yes | 44c | 1,134$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 20c | 992.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 961.7$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 15c | 957.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 11c | 863.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…fb3abacked Yes | 2c | 785.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 772.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 5c | 663.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 27c | 579.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 74c | 514.47$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 473.68$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 468.02$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 26c | 430$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 77c | 421.19$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 413$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 8c | 399.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 26c | 380.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b07abacked Yes | 12c | 369.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 70c | 360$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…201bbacked Yes | 26c | 356.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7614…13b0backed No | 75c | 356.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 311.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 268.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 21c | 261$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…f6f7backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed No | 75c | 245$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed Yes | 18c | 239.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 23c | 211.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…7427backed Yes | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…69e3backed No | 69c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 181.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 75c | 174$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 13c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 166.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 10c | 163.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 32c | 157.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 77c | 157.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…8e3fbacked Yes | 32c | 154.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…9552backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 11c | 144.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 142.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…afbabacked Yes | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa627…d14ebacked Yes | 23c | 130.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…2595backed Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…67b0backed Yes | 26c | 121.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…ca80backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…19ecbacked Yes | 26c | 110.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…c461backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…f423backed Yes | 28c | 109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 26c | 107.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…30e0backed Yes | 29c | 100.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…7191backed Yes | 20c | 100.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…3b2ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…9ce4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 20c | 99.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 94.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 74c | 94.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 19c | 74.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Yes | 30c | 71.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc477…7c48backed Yes | 20c | 66.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…f748backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…2926backed No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…8696backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…e437backed Yes | 30c | 53.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 53.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…78e2backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…cc34backed Yes | 33c | 51.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…b6fcbacked No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 50.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.