Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0ddedceb1dd20483d78fd2cb40caa7f678beccf45ea1b4e45d42baa701674c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 9,275$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,043$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…9548backed Yes | 1c | 6,346$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…0d83backed Yes | 3c | 6,137$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…9c22backed Yes | 1c | 3,307$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,299$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,117$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,029$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 9c | 2,552$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 16c | 1,827$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.53 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 1c | 1,770$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,538$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 3c | 1,488$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 46c | 1,438$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.38 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 24c | 841.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 21c | 799.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 22c | 781.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 13c | 742.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Yes | 17c | 702.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 690.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 14c | 683.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…2778backed Yes | 3c | 630.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 535$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 38c | 507.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.86 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 28c | 472.66$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 21c | 440.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 10c | 430$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 424.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 413$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 44c | 392.83$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 6c | 336.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 19c | 260.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 239.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 35c | 221.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed Yes | 30c | 214.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 186.27$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 37c | 180$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaae…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 179.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…e002backed Yes | 44c | 167.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +450.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 166.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…3071backed Yes | 38c | 166.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 21c | 164.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 13c | 137.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…0fd5backed Yes | 23c | 128.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d71…3b2cbacked No | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 72c | 113.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…e76bbacked Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…b1e8backed Yes | 39c | 108.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae13…16c6backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec8…6695backed Yes | 11c | 102.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1675…3203backed Yes | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c6…1f92backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…468cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc477…7c48backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…b835backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…ec9fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…5e37backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4334…e6f2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…2bfebacked Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…428cbacked Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…ced5backed No | 70c | 89.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…ba5bbacked Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…d257backed Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e3…d524backed Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…aa33backed Yes | 14c | 87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 84.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 78.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 77.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 68.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 24c | 68.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…7c12backed Yes | 21c | 62.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…dbb3backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 54.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…359ebacked Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…e661backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…0501backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…a95abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…a6debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…0eebbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 39c | 45.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 42.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…a59cbacked Yes | 40c | 40.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.