Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40fd7f88ef42dda65f6128d8af1b550bef2242c215821fe8b7bfdeef2920f1ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,597 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 6c | 2,620$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…79abbacked Yes | 8c | 2,442$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,854$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.41 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 4c | 1,496$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,140$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 1,129$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.52 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 8c | 1,123$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 2c | 899.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 71c | 831.86$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes | 11c | 803.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 4c | 774.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…a582backed Yes | 8c | 756.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…694abacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37e…410cbacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked Yes | 7c | 661.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 2c | 597.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…cd98backed Yes | 3c | 580.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 567.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 529.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 479.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 8c | 457.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5708…c766backed Yes | 3c | 440$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 397.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 394.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 9c | 333.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…57e1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 11c | 264.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 19c | 204.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 14c | 192.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 183.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…f464backed Yes | 31c | 146.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…f664backed Yes | 7c | 144.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 117.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…f72bbacked Yes | 14c | 105.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 76.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 57.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked No | 78c | 33.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…3800backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.