Commodities · resolved market
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac8e82eb828a0ebb9cf4b496321122a164bbe172c37c1d9817741bd1d4cb657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,853 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked Yes | 70c | 6,926$4,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…6868backed Yes | 52c | 5,631$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,730.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 52c | 2,859$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,114$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 41c | 1,936$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 1c | 1,840$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 70c | 1,637$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 6c | 1,630$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…373bbacked No | 25c | 1,552$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed No | 54c | 1,513$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 64c | 1,288$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 55c | 1,210$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.43 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,175$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c55…0be1backed No | 24c | 1,050$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.31 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 7c | 968.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.57 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 67c | 960.56$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.6 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 6c | 891.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.71 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 62c | 884.15$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.74 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 32c | 813.91$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.63 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 71c | 794.41$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 27c | 710.09$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0932…e002backed Yes | 6c | 690.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +450.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 25c | 618$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked No | 34c | 616.85$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 70c | 600$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.95 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 16c | 574.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.98 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 489.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.39 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 12c | 465$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 73c | 450$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 65c | 441.48$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 413$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.06 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 28c | 394.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…5cbabacked No | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 293.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 71c | 286.07$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 5c | 261$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.26 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 66c | 257.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 6c | 249.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 246.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 31c | 235.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 231.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 5c | 228.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +2,011.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 31c | 227.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed Yes | 69c | 227.39$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 44c | 225.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 32c | 220.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 32c | 219.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 66c | 213.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 62c | 207.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…5c41backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 192.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…3740backed No | 37c | 184.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 10c | 179.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 28c | 177.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…28f5backed Yes | 69c | 177.43$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 168.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 167.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 166.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…720abacked Yes | 70c | 165.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…0667backed Yes | 9c | 163.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 76c | 145.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 66c | 137.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 62c | 137.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 71c | 134.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 133.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…ec74backed No | 27c | 132.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Yes | 76c | 131.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9659backed No | 18c | 129.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 71c | 120.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 24c | 111.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 76c | 110.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed No | 35c | 106.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…4ca9backed Yes | 70c | 100.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945f…8125backed Yes | 72c | 100.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…a158backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…c434backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc3…024fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…2cc1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…3055backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed Yes | 69c | 99.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 69c | 99.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 31c | 96.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ea31backed Yes | 70c | 96.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…3653backed No | 31c | 87.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…6b9ebacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 64c | 77.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 71c | 76.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.